Euro On a declining channel. Market Analysis for March 19, 2015

March 19, 2015

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 1.0690
Euro On a declining channel
as shown on the chart the market on mid-term on declining channel which means dropping more is the most expected scenario.
the market would be sold off on the upper level of that channel and bought back on the lower levels , after the market in fast move reached the levels of 1.10s has been sold of so fast as well, however , from this move market would stabilize in a downward slope no major and fast declining is expected for the coming session .
In case market has penetrated the levels of 1.470 then a drop to the 1.0380 and 1.0250 is expected ( Most probable scenario ) , but in case market has pulled back and penetrated the 1.10s levels then a continuation for major correction is expected toward 1.15 levels and 1.18s.
Daily Trend: Down
Weekly Trend: Down


GBP/USD
GBP/USD: 1.4894
Pound would be traded in a bigger range market ( Wide and in Rectangle shape )
As shown on the chart , market has successfully broke the declining channel , but , did not succeed to continue the up breakout and retreated back to 1.48s levels .
Market is now expected to be in trading range between 1.50 and 1.45 levels ; in case has broken any of those levels then the market would be in new short-term trend.
In case upward breakout of 1.50s levels the 1.52 and 1.55 levels is expected - Breaking downward of the 1.45s levels then 1.42 /1.38 is the coming targeted.
Finally ; the market would be trading in this range as mentioned for extended time until the breakout ; no expectation of the direction of the breakout direction it would be equal forecast of both side breakout ; so do not anticipate the direction wait the breakout with decisive margin to know the coming direction
Daily Trend: Down
Weekly Trend: Down


USD/JPY
USD/JPY: 121.25
Japanese Yen on uptrend wave - Buy in Dip
Short-Run
Market has tumbled with yesterday Fed and Yellen comments to the levels of 119.
Market still facing resistance at 122.50 zone , However , while still market trading above 120.00s levels more higher level is expected on the Mid-term ; now we have a trading range between 120/122.50 any successful breakout above 121.80 means more advance to expect.
On longer -Term view : we still the uptrend is expected to continue its advancing to more higher levels ( 125/128 )
The market as shown on the chart has retested the broken symmetrical triangle from yesterday move now in case market successfully close higher than 120.20 levels and the re-tested levels the continuation of the uptrend to test the highest levels achieved on the mid-term and even higher levels as mentioned would be the higher probability scenarios
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Up


Crude Oil
Oil (5K) 45.40
Oil To continue its down trend after breaking its previous trading range
Market has corrected to 47s levels yesterday , but has been sold of once it touched the downtrend as shown on the chart ; the more downward pressure on oil still existing and market fundamental of energy sector has not been changed which mean the downtrend is expected - or to be more accurately expect a trading range between the 43 and 46.70 levels with downward slope of that range .
in case the market has broken the lowest levels achieved at 43.70 levels the more drop is coming toward 42 / 38 levels ( most probable scenario - however , higher breakout above the levels of yesterday high at 46.50 means back to 50 /55 dollar for each barrele will be the coming target.
Market still holding drop pressure over WTI where Global economic slowdown with reducing expected Oil demand add more drop pressure
Short-run
market has broken the recent major support of 45s levels as shown ( previously had broken the consolidation pattern ) ; on the short-term we do expect a lower levels of 42 and 38 respectively as long as market below 48 ( which considered on the mid-term pivotal area )
Daily Trend: Down
Weekly Trend: Down


GOLD
GOLD 1165
Drop pressure back to affect Gold
Market is expected to be trading between 1273 and 1148 levels ; which is a trading range condition.
The move for yesterday nigh was so fast and we explained the reasons on the previous section but to analyse gold when need a more technical reasons and point of view.
market is expected to be in this range with downward slope and on longer term down breakout is expected to reach lower levels ( as we mentioned by the beginning of this year ) this levels at 1120 and 1050.
But the lower probability scenario is upper breakout of the major pivotal point on the mid-term 1200 levels and the penetrations of that levels would push market further to 1230 and 1250 levels .
However , In longer -term :the downward trend still exist as long as market is trading below 1250 which 1,000 is the expected price .
Daily Trend: Down
Weekly Trend: Down


Dow Jones
Dow Jones: 18050
Equity on a bigger consolidation pattern - with upward slope
On the longer-term as long as market trading higher than 17,000 us dollar for the index ;then it is an buy opportunity to target $20,000.
short-run
Market on short-term is in a correction phase would target 17250 in case is traded below 17500 , while in case market continued its up swing and crossed 18000 then our longer-term target of 20,000 would be most probable. Moreover , the range which the market trading inside it would be also continue till a successful break of 18200 or 17000 and the breakout direction would push the market further on new levels on the mid-term point of view.
So market will be ranging with up slope until 18,200 penetrated then 18,500 would eb the coming target (Higher probability scenario )
Daily Trend: Neutral
Weekly Trend: Up

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