28 April, 2015
Correction Phase ; a bigger range market
On the short -term the market the market still ranging between 1.05 and 1.12 levels as awaiting a more data to decide the new mid-term direction.
Note that the expected rise requires holding above 1.0820 , reinforcing the expectations to continue the bullish trend in the upcoming period, and as we expected the EURUSD breach 1.0900 level, but if settle above this level, which encourages us to keep preferring the bullish trend in the upcoming period, waiting for the extension of the bullish wave towards 1.1000, moreover , the market is ranging widely awaiting for confirmed breakout - so , uncertainty about the mid-term direction is greatly increasing .
On the longer-term view : the market on the down trend driven by a lot of factors ; moreover , a levels below 1.04s is expected and parity exchange rate would be in the next half of 2015.
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Down
Correction Phase ; with accumulating buying pressure
On the short-term , market break resistance levels which is considered a pivotal level on the mid-term ( 1.5050 ) and still stable above it, which forms good support base that supports continuing the positive scenario in the upcoming period, and as we expected yesterday the market successful to breach 1.5200 level, and settles with a daily close above it, which represents a new support base that supports the continuation of the bullish trend scenario on the short term basis, where its next main target at 1.5380 level initially. However , the uncertainty for the British pound is coming from the next May election , so , we do expect high volatility on the currency for the coming weeks .
Most of the currencies are going on a stabilizing rate between certain levels to consolidate the recent strong move we have seen on the last 6 months. As we have mentioned before ; the breakout was on the downside which means further drop toward 1.42 levels for the mid-term and that means the continuation for the strong dollar across the markets.
On the long-term view : still a lower levels is expected with stabilizing near 1.30s levels , the major turning point would be the May elections - The dollar effect which mainly would move the rate; however , the stabilization is expected because of the expectation that BoE would hike rate after the Fed expected move.
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Down
Japanese Yen consolidate further - breakout soon to catch up the market movement
as market has recorded a higher price over 120 yen per us dollar , the upward for the longer term view is more probable , however , the market of this pair is also trading in a range awaiting more data to decide its mid-term course of action - so we do expect and see a range market sloping upward on the short-view. However , 121.50 considered the major mid-term resistance the breakout of that levels ( which is the most probable ) would push the market further upward .
On the longer -term : still the bull wave in effect as long as market is trading higher than 115 levels , targeting 125/128 levels - buying in dip would be the most strategy used by the markets on that pairs on the long targeted investment choice.
Daily Trend: Neutral
Weekly Trend: Up
Oil (5K) 56.75
Short-term Correction ; Range Market on the upper range - Bearish signals are generated
On the short-term view ; the market has succeeded to continue pushing up the prices upwards gradually to approach the key resistance 56.50 and still above it, and now the prices is stuck between key levels represented at 56.00 intraday support and the minor bearish channel’s resistance located at 56.90, thus, the price needs to breach one of these levels to detect the next track clearly, Therefore, our bullish overview has been weakened and we on the side of coming drop to lower levels as a re-test of the broken resistances ( now as a support ) which would be the levels 52.50 and 50.50 as major broken areas .,
However; breaching 57.50 level will offer good positive motive that supports targeting 60.00 followed by 64.00 levels that represent the main targets for the upcoming period., which requires monitoring the price behavior when reaching this resistance due to its importance to detect the price trend on the short term and medium term basis.
However , on the longer -term the fundamental of the market has not been changed and June OPEC meeting is the awaiting event for the energy observer , with no change - as expected - about the adjustment of the supply then more down move is the new wave on the future to target below 40 per barrel .
Daily Trend: UP
Weekly Trend: Down
Wide Range Market - breakout on the edge
On the Short-term ; the market has penetrated the short-term support area which is 1188 ; however , this breakout could not be trusted unless market would be traded below 1178.As we can notice on the chart ; the market is trading at a declining channel ; after reaching the lower band of that pattern the market has rebounded more upside movement on the last trading session as we expected and hit 1207.00 level, there might be chances of slight bearish rebound in the upcoming sessions, and possible visit to the sideways range support at 1181.00 , but , in case market penetrated that channel and traded below the levels of 1178/1175 more downside prices is expected as we mentioned on the longer view.
the major short-term levels which the market would keep an eye on it 1178 - further drop below means 1150s would be the target for the market again. And higher 1220 which penetrations of it means toward 1250 and higher.
On the longer-term view : The view has become stabilized after a drop was expected further ; the market would range between 1250 and 1150; the penetration of one of this level would determine the new direction and continuously we would update the view as the factors are changing .
Daily Trend: Down
Weekly Trend: Range
Dow Jones: 17912
Equity on a bigger consolidation pattern
On the longer-term as long as market trading higher than 17,000 us dollar for the index ;then it is an buy opportunity to target $20,000. in case now rate hike by the Fed. However , on the chart we can see the market trading within the channel ; which means 80% of the attempt to breakout that channel would be failed .However , in case market successfully broke one of the bands of that channel we would see further movement aggressively on the breakout direction.
Market on short-term is in a correction phase would target 17250 in case is traded below 17500 , while in case market continued its upswing and crossed 18000 then our longer-term target of 20,000 would be most probable. Moreover , the range which the market trading inside it would be also continue till a successful break of 18200 or 17000 and the breakout direction would push the market further on new levels on the mid-term point of view.
So market will be ranging with up slope until 18,200 penetrated then 18,500 would be the coming target (Higher probability scenario )
Daily Trend: Down
Weekly Trend: Up
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