13 May, 2015
On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the decline in the commercial inventories of oil in the USA by 2 million barrels. Futures prices of oil are rising despite negative forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The decline in the USD against other currencies, which continues since mid-April, provides support to the oil prices. Recall that the Canadian dollar is considered a commodity currency; therefore it is very sensitive to the fluctuation in oil prices.
Current situation is favourable for the Canadian currency; therefore it is strengthening against the USD. If we take 18 March as a starting point, the decline amounted 800 points. Currently, the pair is traded at the level of 1.1970, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci. Breakdown of this level can trigger further decline in price. A strong indication of the downtrend will be the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1870, which goes along the line ÅÌÀ200 on the daily chart. In this case the targets will be at the levels of 1.1720 (Fibonacci 50%) and 1.1470 (Fibonacci 61.8%). Indicators (OsMA, Stochastic channels and trend) on the periods of Í1, Í4 and Daily will suggest that short positions are advisable.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.1970 and 1.1870.
Support levels: 1.2025, 1.2040, 1.2085, 1.2110, 1.2140 and 1.2180
Limit sell orders are recommended at the levels of 1.2000, 1.2025 and 1.2040. Sell positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.1970 with the target of 1.1930.
Buy positions are advisable after breakdown of the level of 1.2085 with the targets of 1.2110, 1.2140, 1.2180 and 1.2280.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the level of 15.32 (23.6% correction). The price is supported by the 38.2% fan line, directed up, and the level of 15.05 (38.2% correction)...
Since the beginning of this week, the pair continues strengthening amid some reduction in anxiety on the market. The Dollar was supported by data on Retail Sales that came out in the US on Friday. In January, the index grew by 0.2% that was slightly better than forecasts of economists...
Since the middle of the previous week, the price of Brent crude oil continues growing amid weakness of the US Dollar. In addition, the price is supported by expectations of the reduction in output by major world producers...
On the daily chart, the pair is trading just above the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA130, EMA65 and EMA14, all directed down. The RSI is failing to break out from the oversold zone as it tested its resistance at 32 mark two times last week...
On Thursday, the price of gold fell to its 5-year lows. The Bearish trend accelerated amid macroeconomic statistics form the US than strengthened expectations of an interest rates hike on the US in December...
The price remains under pressure amid strengthening US Dollar that was significantly supported after the publication of strong NFPR data in the US that substantially increased chances of an interest rate hike in December...
On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading in the area of 48.10 which is seen as a particularly strong level as 23.6% Fibonacci both for the short-term and medium-term trends have concentrated in the area of 48.10-47.80...
At the end of last week, the price of Brent crude oil strengthened moderately, being supported by the weakness of the US dollar which failed to hold its positions, gained after the recent Fed meeting...
Last week the price of gold significantly grew. The pair remains under pressure amid concerns on the markets that the Fed will refrain from an interest rate increase before the end of the year...