Higher volatility & Uncertainty about the new political scheme. Market Review for May 14, 2015

14 May, 2015

Correction phase ; slopping upward
On the short -term the market the market still ranging between 1.1000 and 1.1500 levels as awaiting a more data to decide the new mid-term direction.
The market clear positivity to approach from (1.1500) level, which encourages us to suggest more bullish bias in the upcoming period. to reach (1.1600) areas as a next target, but we should note that it is important to hold above (1.1200) level. The penetration for the levels of 1.1250 would be more bullish action to be generated and drive the market to the 1.15 levels; noting that price holding above 1.1050 is a key condition to achieve the expected targets( 1.15s levels ) - in case the market ; failed to continue its short-term uptrend and successfully traded below 1.1050 , then a correction phase and a re-test for the major support which were broken out on the last session days ( 1.0950 , 1.0888).
On the longer-term view : the market on the down trend driven by a lot of factors ; moreover , a levels below 1.04s is expected and parity exchange rate would be in the next half of 2015.
The chart analysis provided for mid-term view
Daily Trend: Dow
Weekly Trend: Down 

GBP/USD: 1.5795
Higher volatility & Uncertainty about the new political scheme at the political structure
On the short-term , market bounced clearly to the downside after testing 1.5500 level, and still stable above it, which forms good support base that supports continuing the positive scenario in the upcoming period, and as we expected the market successful to hit 1.57s ( Penetrated it already ! ) level, where its next main target at 1.5800 level initially then 1.5960 level. taking into consideration that close below 1.5140 will push the price to decline towards 1.5020 then 1.4910 levels on the near basis. However, the uncertainty for the British pound is coming from the election and the new political structure .
Most of the currencies are going on a stabilizing rate between certain levels to consolidate the recent strong move we have seen on the last 6 months. As we have mentioned before ; the breakout was on the downside which means further drop toward 1.42 levels for the mid-term and that means the continuation for the strong dollar across the markets.
On the long-term view : still a lower levels is expected with stabilizing near 1.30s levels , the major turning point would be the May elections - The dollar effect which mainly would move the rate ; however , the stabilization is expected because of the expectation that BoE would hike rate after the Fed expected move.
The chart analysis provided for mid-term view
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Down

USD/JPY: 119.25
Japanese Yen consolidate further - breakout soon to catch up the market movement
As market has recorded a higher price over 120 yen per us dollar , the upward for the longer term view is more probable , however , the market of this pair is also trading in a range awaiting more data to decide its mid-term course of action - so we do expect and see a range market sloping upward on the short-view as long as the market is trading higher than 117.80 . However , 121.50 considered the major mid-term resistance the breakout of that levels ( which is the most probable ) would push the market further upward .
On the longer -term : still the bull wave in effect as long as market is trading higher than 115 levels , targeting 125/128 levels - buying in dip would be the most strategy used by the markets on that pairs on the long targeted investment choice.
The chart analysis provided for mid-term view
Daily Trend: Neutral
Weekly Trend: Up

Crude Oil
Oil (5K) 60.45
Short-term Correction ; buying pressure still exist !
On the short-term view ; the market has succeeded to continue pushing up the prices upwards gradually and still above key resistance 56.50, and the price continues to fluctuate around 58.00 62.00 level. However , by breaking this levels the market has will continued to the bullish momentum and will recorded 65.
So on the short-term the market has rebounded back to the support levels as shown (58.20 ) ; however , as the market trading higher than 57.50 then we do expect further advance to re-test recent high and even higher.
However , on the longer -term the fundamental of the market has not been changed and June OPEC meeting is the awaiting event for the energy observer , with no change - as expected - about the adjustment of the supply then more down move is the new wave on the future to target below 40 per barrel .
Daily Trend: UP
Weekly Trend: Down

GOLD 1215
Wide Range Market - breakout on the edge
On the short term view ; the market is ranging widely between major levels of 1170s and 1225s ; the breakout of one of these levels would push further the market on the direction of that breakout which would be the new mid-term trend . Gold ended yesterday’s trading above 1215.00 level, this breach opens the way to continue for target 1225.00 followed by 1244.00 levels initially.
On the longer-term view : The view has become stabilized after a drop was expected further ; the market would range between 1250 and 1150; the penetration of one of this level would determine the new longer term( which is downside move is the most probable scenario to target 1150 and 1050 , and an upside move to 1250 before the expected decline ) direction and continuously we would update the view as the factors are changing .
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Range

Dow Jones
Dow Jones: 18085
Equity on a bigger ranging phase
On the longer-term as long as market trading higher than 17,000 us dollar for the index ;then it is an buy opportunity to target $20,000. in case now rate hike by the Fed. However , on the chart we can see the market trading within the channel ; which means 80% of the attempt to breakout that channel would be failed .However , in case market successfully broke one of the bands of that channel we would see further movement aggressively on the breakout direction.
short-run ;
Market on short-term is in a correction phase would target 17250 in case is traded below 17500 , while in case market continued its upswing and crossed 18000 then our longer-term target of 20,000 would be most probable. Moreover , the range which the market trading inside it would be also continue till a successful break of 18200 or 17000 and the breakout direction would push the market further on new levels on the mid-term point of view.
So market will be ranging with up slope until 18,200 penetrated then 18,500 would be the coming target (Higher probability scenario )
Daily Trend: Down
Weekly Trend: Up

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