22 May, 2015
Yesterday’s weaker than expected existing home sales in US and a dip in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index supported forecasts for only tepid pick up in Q2 growth after a very weak Q1. The May Philadelphia Fed Survey disappointed. The figure came in at 6.7 instead of 8.0 expected by the analyst consensus. This increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current dovish stance.
EURUSD has been trading in the low-to-mid 1.11s, above Wednesday’s 1.1060 low. There was a lack of substantive progress at the latest summit in Riga between the Greek government and creditors in bailout negotiations. The on-going Grexit uncertainty might have been the reason the euro’s upside has been curtailed, while the May German IFO today should affirm the slowing in growth momentum that was seen in the ZEW and PMI surveys. ECB’s Draghi and BoE’s Carney are set to speak at an ECB conference on central banking in Portugal and today’s European data calendar is unlikely to give markets any reason to cheer. Another speaker worthy of mention is the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking later on today.
The resistance area created by the May 11th pivotal low has been holding EURUSD back but yesterday’s daily low was higher than the previous day’s low. This with the fact that price has moved higher from today’s open suggests modest bullishness on EURUSD. Daily bar lows also seem to honour a trendline drawn from April low. Stochastics are oversold and the lower Bollinger bands are catching up with the price. US Dollar index is looking weak as it’s trading below the shooting star candle lows from day before yesterday. Nearest support and resistance levels: 1.1052 and 1.1324.
Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)
Modest EUR strength and USD and GBP weakness is dominating the Currency Movers charts today. AUD, NZD and JPY performance has been mixed. EURJPY, EURAUD, EURCAD and EURNZD are reacting higher from intraday supports and should EUR make a move today, these pairs are likely to follow.
Main Macro Events Today
German Gross Domestic Product (Q1) growth slowed to 0.3% q/q as expected, a significant decrease from the fourth quarter last year which was 0.7%. Still, taken the two quarters together, the underlying trend is robust. The very strong labour market, the rising wage growth and the boost to real disposable income from lower oil prices reinforced Q1.
US Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to remain unchanged, while the core index, which excludes food and energy products, is expected to rise to 1.7%, 0.1% lower compared to previous year’s result.
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to expand to 1.0% in April, 0.2% lower compared to the previous month. It is seen rising 0.1% on a monthly comparable basis in April after the expansion of 0.7% m/m in March and 0.9% m/m in February.
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