25 May, 2015
XAU/USD: This week you are recommended to open Sell for two reasons. First, 2 months' middle-term correction on US currency has finished and now we have a new cycle of growth of quotations. Financial markets still await for news about increase of the interest rate by Fed Reserve. In this regard, we may expect new year Highs on the index of US dollar basket USDX. This factor is negative for gold, because it is nominated in US currency and growth of US dollar quotes leads to decline of gold.
Secondly, inflation expectations in the world are still moderate. Leading economies of the world do not indicate growth of inflation though cost of energies grew and that will put a pressure on gold too. Usually, this metal is used by investors to hedge inflation risks and since we don't have growth of inflation, gold is not an attractive asset.
This week we are to open Sell positions on growth of quotations to the area 1213/1218 and take profit on the level of 1191.
This week metals of platinum group will face a descending tendency. Firstly, growth of quotations of US currency is negative for both metals, cause they are nominated in US currency. Secondly, in April leading economies of the world did not provide a strong demand in cars. US and Japan cut sales of cars but China and Eurozone increased.
This week we are to open Sell positions on XPT/USD on growth of quotations to the area 1154/1166 and take profit on the level of 1124 and Sell on XPD/USD on growth of quotations to the area 791/799 and take profit on the level of 770.
We expect that bears will dominate this week. Firstly, on Friday (22nd of May) head of the FRS Janet Yellen said that regulator is about to increase interest rates in 2015 and slowdown of economy is temporary. 2Years' treasuries responded by growth of yield. Toughening of monetary policy is negative for stock market. In this regard, investors will cut long positions on exchange.
Secondly, on Friday (22nd of May) Volatility Index (VIX) has reached its 5,5 months' Low which indicates a possible correction on S&P500.
This week we can open Sell trades on growth in the area 2130/2139 and take profit in 2109
Daily chart: the pair is striving to reach the upper Bollinger band (1.5715), but ADX show weaknesses, so we wait a strong resistance in this area...
Daily chart: the pair is moving within the Bollinger envelopes, being "surrounded" by two colliding O&U s - from north it is from 1.1110, from south it is coming from 1.0825...
Daily chart: a bearish pin from the upper Bollinger band has been produced , which almost certainly will bring the pair to the bottom Bollinger band in the next few days (1.5403)...
Daily chart : the middle Bollinger band (123.14) is being tested and, apparently, decline to the bottom band (121.36) will continue...
The daily chart: the pair turns to be in flat within the envelope Bollinger, however, here is a loss of support from the middle band (123.21), we see a dive to the bottom envelope in the direction of the bottom line (121.36)...
Daily chart: the middle Bollinger band (1.1026) has been reached and, in contrast to descending envelopes and passive ADX, we can expect decline to the bottom band (1.0784) prior to a new upward dash...
Daily chart: bulls are moving to the middle Bollinger band (1.1026), from where a pullback is probable to happen to the area of demand in Euro configured by the pattern O&U (1.0825)...
Yesterday the pair has confirmed its correctional potential. The nearest strong resistance - the middle Bollinger band (1.1047), from where Euro can go to 1.0825, accumulating a probable demand within the frames of O&U pattern. From this area, it can move even upper to 1.1280 and 1.1380...
This week we have at least three reasons to expect a descending tendency to go on. 1. US currency is demonstrating a confident growth of quotations...