One to watch - AUDNZD bounces off 1.0900

June 4, 2015

Earlier in the week we postulated that AUDNZD may have the legs to make 1.0900, but we were uncertain of where it may head from there. The pair has since hit 1.0900 and pulled back slightly within an overall short-term upward trend. However, there are some warning signs that price may have reached a short-term peak around 1.0900, with a few tech indicators pointing to stalling momentum. Yet, it’s worth waiting to see if price breaks out of its ST upward trend before becoming too bearish, which could see price test support around 1.0700.

On the fundamental side of the equation, the no more major economic data expected out of Australia or NZ and the market’s attention is squarely focused on Europe and the US. The Australian dollar is pulling back on the back of softer than expected Australian economic data (retail sales and trade numbers missed estimates, see: Is the party already over for the Australian dollar?). Not only does the data cast doubt over the strength of consumer demand and the export market, it’s spooking traders into taking profit on aussie longs. Investors were already nervous due to the inability of AUDUSD to maintain any ground above 0.7800. Meanwhile, the kiwi is going with the commodity-flow at the moment due a lack of local market moving events or data. On the plus side, the NZ dollar is at least looking somewhat comfortable from a technical perspective, although we aren’t overly bullish on NZDUSD at the moment.

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