EUR/USD: referendum in Greece

June 29, 2015

Current trend

Hopes of Greece reaching an agreement with its creditors faded last weekend as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has called for a referendum on 5 July. To avoid financial system collapse, the government shut down the banks until 7 July and imposed a limit on cash withdrawal.

The Euro opened with a 160 points gap below its last week close, gold grew by more than 100 points. Markets uncertainty will force investors to switch funds into the USD, the Yen, gold and the US government bonds.

The pair is being pressurised by Friday release of the US Not-Farm Payrolls. The medium-term downward trend of the pair is further supported by the ECB’s soft monetary policy and expectations of the rate hike in the US, as well as Euro’s drop against the GBP.

Today important news include Consumer Price index in Germany due at 3:00 pm (GMT+3), Pending Home Sales in the US at 5:00 pm (GMT+3), and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business index at 5:30 pm (GMT+3).

Support and resistance

After opening with the 160 points gap, the pair is now trading near 1.1100.

The nearest aim in the medium-term is 2015 low at 1.0460.

Resistance levels are 1.1630 (EMA200), 1.1420 (EMA144), 1.1290 (23.6% Fibonacci).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastic remain in the sell-zone.

Support levels: 1.0960, 1.0860, 1.0720.

Resistance levels: 1.1180, 1.1200, 1.1290, 1.1420.

Trading tips

Open short positions from 1.1180, 1200 with targets at 1.1000, 1.0980, 1.0860, 1.0720, 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.1250. The breakdown of 1.0960 will reinforce the pair decline.

Open long positions after the breakout of 1.1420 with targets at 1.1480, 1.1630, 1.1700, 1.1785.

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