Currency movers for July 08, 2015

8 July, 2015

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD traded between the nearest support and resistance levels yesterday as was expected. The 1.0930 support attracted buyers and after printing a low of 1.0916 price rallied to 1.1052. Weekly pivot bar from end of May has been providing support but at the time of writing there are no definite signs of price reversing the current downtrend. Price is trending lower in a 4h 2 stdv regression channel and is at the time of writing near channel high and not that far from 1.1048 resistance level. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1048.

Greece gets until Sunday to reach a deal. Euro group and EU leaders meeting yesterday once again failed to reach an agreement with Greece amid a lack of concrete proposals from Tsipras. Greece is expected to present a formal request for ESM aid today and Euro group ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the proposals that are expected to be laid out in the request. The final deadline to reach an agreement at technical level seems to be Friday and a deal must be reached at a summit on Sunday. German Chancellor Merkel said she was not particularly optimistic and EU Commission President Juncker said Grexit scenarios have been prepared in detail. The ECB meanwhile stands ready to try and limit contagion. It seems this time the game really will be up Sunday if there is no miracle.

Eurogroup and EU summit yesterday once again didn’t get very far amid the lack of new proposals from Greece. EU President Tusk was left to say that a formal request for ESM aid was expected today, Thursday at the latest, while stressing the strict conditionality of ESM treaties. So if Tsipras thought by not extending the bailout and going to the ESM instead he would get more leeway he will have been disappointed. Greece said it will send a formal request for ESM aid today, while EU’s Dombrovkis said Greece was ready to present reform proposals tomorrow.

In an unusually clear way Tusk set Sunday as the very last deadline for a deal with Greece, while urging both sides to work together to come to an agreement. German Chancellor Merkel was not very optimistic however and EU Commission President Juncker said detailed Grexit scenarios have been prepared. The ECB meanwhile continues to stand ready to limit the fallout from the Greek crisis.

U.S. JOLTS report showed job rose 29k in May after a 225k increase in April to 5,363k (revised from 267k to 5,376k). The job openings rate was steady at 3.6 (April was nudged down from 3.7%). Hirings fell 34k following a revised 54k drop in April (was -81k). The rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% (April revised up from 3.5%). There was a 10k decline in quitters after a 60k drop previously (revised from -100k). The quit rate was unchanged at 1.9%. The May data won’t have market impact.

U.S. trade deficit widened 2.9% to $41.9 bln in May, after narrowing 19.5% to -$40.7 bln in April (revised from -$40.9 bln). Imports dipped 0.1% following the 3.3% April decline. Exports slid 0.8% after the 1.1% gain in April (revised from 1.0%). Excluding petroleum, the trade balance fell to -$36.1 bln from -$33.9 bln in April (revised from -$34.1 bln).

Main Macro Events Today

  • EU Extraordinary Economic Summit: Greece is expected to present a formal request for ESM aid today and Eurogroup ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the proposals that are expected to be laid out in the request.
  • FOMC Minutes: The Fed is expected to be more optimistic about the US economy reaching their 2% inflation target. We are also likely to see some optimism on personal consumption.
  • US Consumer Credit: The May consumer credit report is out on today and should reveal a $18 bln (median $18.5 bln) increase for the month following a $20.5 bln increase in April and a $21.3 bln gain in March. Over the past year the headline has averaged $18.2 bln, about in line with our forecast.

2015-07-08_1045

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance 

This morning the strongest movers have been among the AUD and JPY pairs. AUD weakness has been mirrored by JPY strength. This makes sense as Chinese stock market has been plummeting over the last couple of weeks and today Hang Seng Composite is down by 8%, a massive move that really tells about panic over Chinese stock market. China is a huge consumer of copper and iron ore that Australia produces and any problems in the economy are likely to have a major impact on Australia. Thus the weakness in AUD while JPY is up due to its safe haven status.

Key support and resistance levels in AUDJPY: 88.25 and 90.48 and NZDJPY 79.89 and 85.32

2015-07-08_1024

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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