22 July, 2015
EURUSD price, now having touched the lower end of my initial 1.0970’s corrective bounce target, should open up the way for a 1.1030’s lower top on any clean break of the 1.0970’s. Daily chart price action is still well contained within my downward sloping bear channel; Stochastic Oscillator analysis supports a further corrective bounce before any resumption of the daily chart downtrend. Traders may look to open new short positions within the 1.1030’s for a measured move (March lows – May highs) that may extend price lower towards a retest of the 1.0840’s.
Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday upgraded Greece’s sovereign credit rating by two notches and revised its outlook to stable from negative, citing euro zone countries initial agreement to start negotiations with the country on a third bailout. The probability of Greece leaving the Eurozone is less than 50% , however the country may still face shrinking GDP.
U.S. Fed’s annual industrial production revisions showed production knocked down to 0.2% in June, versus the prior 0.3% print, while May was left at -0.2%, with April revised up to a -0.3% pace from -0.5% previously. Capacity utilization for June was revised down sharply to 77.8% from 78.4%, while May was nudged to 77.7% from 78.2%, with April at 78.0% versus 78.5%. At the margin, the data add to the argument for the FOMC to delay a September rate hike.
Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)
The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.
This morning EUR is trading lower against the GBP and the JPY. The GBP is stronger across the board against most pairs.
Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:
Main Macro Events Today
• GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: The Bank of England (BoE) will begin to tighten monetary policy as late as in the third quarter of 2016, EY ITEM Clubsaid in its latest forecast for the UK economy.
• USD Existing Home Sales: Existing home sales for June are forecasted at 5.330M , median 5.400M both lower from last 5.3550M
Asian Market Wrap: Core yields moved higher and stock markets were underpinned as Trump tweeted enthusiastically about the summit with North Korea's leader...
Last week’s recovery move supported by persistent USD weakness. Reviving safe-haven demand/subdued US bond yields provides an...
The key commodity was pivoting around $1285 with support at $1282 and resistance around 1286. The London close, put pay to that as a raft of futures...
Still, U.K. and U.S. futures are also moving higher, indicating that abating fears over North Korea are keeping markets underpinned, while earnings optimism...
With a the NZD is overvalued on one side and Sabre rattling between North Korea and the US continuing overnight there was really only...
Asian stock markets moved higher, with a rally in banks underpinned by earnings reports and helping to offset pressure on exporters and automakers...
Gold remains bullish having posted at high over 1265 yesterday. My bias remains long and I entered again at 1258 last night. However, the intraday...
The Fed’s reluctance to commit to a time for QT beyond “relatively soon” and the fact that the Fed appeared to be moderately more concerned...
U.S. markets will have a lot on their plates this week as they continue to assess the June jobs data, global developments in the aftermath of the G20 meeting...