2 September, 2015
Now that concerns about China and forecasted inflation numbers are being lowered, the ECB will now have renewed pressure to expand its QE, traders will be on alert for further ECB clues during tomorrow’s ECB press conference. If the ECB hints at further EU growth concerns, the odds will increase for additional QE which may provide enough of a catalyst to support EUR bear positions over the medium term.
The short term technical outlook for the EURUSD pair remains in an uptrend, however, momentum analysis looks to be weakening , if we can spot a Stochastic bull cross take shape below the 20 line hopes for continued upward price, momentum should remain intact. For the moment we cannot rule out a price move to retest the 1.1460’s – 1.1530’s before the bears emerge once again to potentially carry the pair back towards the 1.11 support area. Traders should also remain alert for price moves out-side of the most recent upward channel line for breakout trade set-ups. I remain committed to selling into EURUSD strength over the coming days.
Chinese markets will be closed both tomorrow and on Friday, which may be good for global markets as it means that the risk of bearish stock market contagion from this source will be set aside until at least Monday.
Market concerns over how central banks will respond to new adjustments in global growth forecast have been a driving force behind the recent financial market volatility. Crude oil prices have been reflecting growth projections with prices now trading lower, around the $43 level. Oil prices today are shapely lower today after a short lived price rebound attempt which posted a largest multi day rally in a quarter of a century. The AUD and CAD have been trading towards the downside within daily chart analysis as money flows into the JPY over the last 5 trading days, as an alternative to the USD, EUR and GBP, this trend should continue until at least we see clearer signals from the U.S. Fed regarding when and if we will see a pending rate hike. This Friday’s release of the U.S. Non-farm Employment Change should provide a clue about the Fed’s next move.
Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)
The EUR is mostly weaker against the majors ahead of tomorrows ECB press conference and USD buying is expected to pick up again.
The AUD is starting to firm up after the manufacturing sector in Australia expanded in August at an accelerated pace, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed, with a PMI score of 51.7.
The CAD is mixed as the current account deficit narrowed by $0.7 billion in Q2 to $17.4 billion. The reduction in the deficit was mainly reflected in the trade in goods and services balance.
The JPY is also trading mixed as traders may be unwinding safe haven trades.
Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:
Main Macro Events Today
• GBP PMI Construction (Aug): The UK August construction PMI rose to 57.3 from July’s 57.1, below the Reuters median forecast for 57.5 but marking what is now the longest period of growth for seven and a half years. Today’s report follows yesterday’s disappointing manufacturing PMI, and investors will now be looking to tomorrow’s release of the service sector survey to complete the August PMI picture.
• EUR Producer Price Index: Eurozone PPI inflation held steady at -2.1% y/y in July, with prices down 0.1% m/m. The headline rate remains under pressure from lower energy prices, which dropped 0.5% m/m and were down 6.5% y/y. Excluding energy the annual rate in the Eurozone would have been -0.4% y/y, still in negative territory, but unchanged from July and up from levels seen earlier in the year. This ties in with the rise in core inflation reflection in HICP numbers. Inflation may still be negative but the risk of real deflation is lower than it was last year and this should keep the ECB on hold even if Draghi will likely affirm a clear easing bias at tomorrow’s meeting.
• USD Factory Orders: July factory goods data is out on today and its expected for orders to be up 0.7% (median 0.7%) on the month with shipments up 1.2% and inventories up 0.1%. This compares to the already released durable goods data for the month which had orders up 2.0% with shipments up 1.0% and inventories unchanged. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio down to 1.34 in July from 1.35 since April.
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