Currency movers for October 09, 2015

9 October, 2015

EURUSD, Daily

There was no surprise in the FOMC minutes from the mid-September meeting with “several members” worried that downside risk to growth and inflation have increased due to uncertainties about the global economy. The fact that the FOMC members are downbeat adds to the odds that the FED will delay to at least year end. The U.S. Dow Jones finished with a solid higher close in the wake of the FOMC minutes, while Asian stock markets have rallied across in overnight trading, and most commodity prices are gaining. Crude Oil is trading above $50 for the first time since late July, and may aid support to commodity linked currencies.

Previous EURUSD price action closed just below the key resistance (1.1280), leaving a shadow on the daily. However, the EUR bulls seem to be gaining control of the market this morning as price has taken out yesterday’s high (1.1327) and now looks set to continue a push higher with short term bullish momentum now in play. EURUSD bulls should remain cautious of the failed upward break of the one year moving average August high near the 1.17’s, which supports that the longer term trend on the EUR remains to the downside.

EURUSD daily traders should understand that the pair still lacks direction over the very short term and price seems to be attempting to trace out a trading range between the 1.1090 – 1.1460 range.

The Bank of England left policy unchanged as expected; however, the meeting minutes sounded more to the side of holding current policy for an extended period as the BoE pointed out downside risks, all suggesting that the BoE is in no hurry to raise rates.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR is trading higher against the majors in the wake of positive French production numbers, which normally is not a EUR mover, but today catches a USD bearish market following yesterday’s publication of the Fed’s minutes to its most recent policy meeting. The USD, JPY and the GBP are all suffering losses as commodity currencies trade stronger fueled by a general risk on investor sentiment after the FOMC minutes indicated an increased in the odds that the FED will delay any upward move in interest rates. The AUD , CAD and NZD are all benefiting from the stronger commodity markets and the fact that US Crude Oil is trading at its highest levels not seen since late July.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Italian Industrial Production: dropped -0.5% m/m in August, after 1.1% m/m in July. The work day adjusted y/y rate fell back to 1.0% from 2.8% and output actually stagnated in the three months to August, which will raise renewed concerns about the health of the Italian economy.

• EUR French Industrial Production: better than expected with manufacturing up 2.2% m/m and overall production 1.6% m/m. July data were revised down, but the numbers are nevertheless encouraging. The positive numbers tie in with the improvement in French PMI readings recently and confirm that the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone has finally reached France.

• USD Wholesale Inventories: August wholesale trade data is out later today and should reveal a 0.3% (median unchanged) decline for sales while inventories remain unchanged for the month. This would follow respective July figures of -0.3% for sales and -0.1% for inventories.

• CAD Bank of Canada Business Outlook: due out later today, is expected to improve to 10.0 in Q3 from 8.0 in Q2 and a multi-year low 4.0 in Q1. An expected rebound in Q3 GDP following the declines in Q1 and Q2 is expected to lift sentiment.


Source link  
Gold falls at Friday close to 1275

The key commodity was pivoting around $1285 with support at $1282 and resistance around 1286. The London close, put pay to that as a raft of futures...

Stock market recovery continued

Still, U.K. and U.S. futures are also moving higher, indicating that abating fears over North Korea are keeping markets underpinned, while earnings optimism...

NZDJPY beneficiary of Asian session

With a the NZD is overvalued on one side and Sabre rattling between North Korea and the US continuing overnight there was really only...


Euro above 1.18 against the dollar

Asian stock markets moved higher, with a rally in banks underpinned by earnings reports and helping to offset pressure on exporters and automakers...

Gold support at 1258 but rolled over 15m

Gold remains bullish having posted at high over 1265 yesterday. My bias remains long and I entered again at 1258 last night. However, the intraday...

FOMC held rates steady

The Fed’s reluctance to commit to a time for QT beyond “relatively soon” and the fact that the Fed appeared to be moderately more concerned...


FOMC decision to outline its balance

U.S. markets will have a lot on their plates this week as they continue to assess the June jobs data, global developments in the aftermath of the G20 meeting...

Dollar majors have been challenged

EURUSD has settled around 1.1350, modestly above the five-session low posted yesterday at 1.1336. USDJPY has been trading on either side of 113.00...

Yen crosses keep ascending

The yen is coming under pressure across-the-board, with the 0% yielding yen converting back to the funding currency of choice in the forex market...

  


Share: