EURJPY failed to challenge the channel top

October 15, 2015

EURJPY, Weekly

After swinging strongly at the end of 2014 and in the first part of this year EURJPY is moving sideways with a slight downside slope. Price has struggled this week to move higher due to a weekly pivotal candle low at 137.06. The level also coincided with an almost flat 50 week SMA, which highlights the sideways nature of this market. Stochastics is reflecting this by moving sideways near the 50 point mark. The major weekly support and resistance levels are at 132.19, 133.17, 137.06 and 139.04.

EURJPY, Daily

After rallying higher last week, the pair has been trading sideways for the last three days. The loss of upside momentum was due to several technical factors. The upside was limited by the upper Bollinger Bands but also by 100 period SMA. Furthermore, these coincide with declining channel top and a pivotal high from September 17th. Stochastics rolling over near the overbought territory was another signal to focus on the short side. Support and resistance levels in the daily chart are 135.35 and 137.08 while lower Bollinger Bands coincide with a pivotal support area between 133.43 to 134.25.

EURJPY, 240 min

After hitting a pivotal resistance at 136.67, EURJPY moved sideways before falling lower at the time of writing this report. Price fell down to 50% Fibonacci level (at 135.17) that roughly coincides with the 135.34 support in the daily chart and has bounced slightly at the time of writing. The 4h support and resistance areas are at 133.42 – 134.05 and 136.33 – 136.75.

Conclusion

The pair is moving sideways with a slight tendency to the downside but a weekly low from three weeks ago was a higher low and suggests some indecision by the markets. Price has now fallen down to a weekly high from two weeks ago. If the pair finds support between 133.17 and 135.12 a breakout from the channel to the upside looks more likely. However, the daily picture looks like there could be some short opportunities should the market rally first. Now that the market has dropped down to 137.35 support it is too late to be an aggressive seller but the sell opportunities could be found at or near 136.33 resistance (if momentum reversal signals confirm the idea) while the support range at 133.42 – 134.05 is likely to be an area to attract buyers and would therefore make sense as a target level for short trades. Should this level fail, the area between 132.30 and 133.15 should come into play.

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