29 October, 2015
USDCAD rallied over 1.3220 from 1.3095 following the FOMC announcement, the commodity backdrop didn’t help the CAD either, as oil prices pulled back from $46 to $45.34 lows, and gold dropped from $1,178 to $1,162 on fears of a December Fed rate hike.
The USD gets a boast of strength, in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC Fed statement, 1.1000 now marks a minor resistance zone.
The AUD is broadly weaker, as the RBA is expected to refrain from cutting rates at its November policy meeting next week, according to the latest Reuters survey of economists. 17 of the 21 respondents expect a no change announcement, while the remaining four anticipate a 25 bp rate cut.
EUDUSD, remains below its weekly uptrend line, and is now bouncing off the July 20th low (1.0807). Intra-day, a small price rebound hit a high of 1.0976, and then turned back under 1.0960. The intra-day move higher coincided with an unexpected rise in the Eurozone economic confidence index. The EURUSD declined approximately 550 pips since mid October, after ECB’s president Mario Draghi announced expansion for QE program and Fed’s decision for no change regarding interest rates.
EURAUD key support at 1.56 broke to complete a short term top. The latest bounce may seek to leave a lower topnear 1.56 ahead of a deeper drop towards 1.5190. Bearish moving average cross of the 10,50 SMA is spotted, price is below the tentative downward slopping trend line. Downward price momentum has turned bullish. EURAUD is expected to retest the key resistance level at 1.5600 and to continue its downtrend.
Senior Currency Strategist
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