Macro events & news for October 30, 2015

30 October, 2015

Macro events & news for October 30, 2015

FX News Today

The USD dropped back, after the Q3 GDP miss, and slightly better claims data.. The meager 1.5% rise in Q3 GDP and small 1k uptick in jobless claims was on balance, as the Fed says, policy will remain very accommodative even with a small lift-off. U.S. equities slipped lower after their impulsive rally yesterday in the wake of the hawkish FOMC hints.

EURUSD rebounded, after German Oct HICP inflation jumped to 0.2% y/y from -0.2% y/y in the previous month. The national CPI rate rose to 0.3% y/y from 0.0% y/y. Stronger than expected numbers, which lift the German headline rate out of negative territory again. The EURUSD rallied to 1.0986 from 1.0900. The German DAX fell off 0.6% after a mix of indicators and news that Deutsche Bank is laying off 35k staff and closing operations in several countries.

GBP U.K. consumer confidence came in weaker than expected, and dropped to 2 from 3 in the previous month. The pound logged a fresh low at 1.5242, making this the seventh straight daily lower low. The latest leg lower comes on the back of a EURUSD dip, though GBP has been on a weakening bias, which followed disappointing Q3 GDP data earlier in the week. GBPUSD closest support is at 1.5300, the Oct 13th low at 1.5200 provides the next downside support after 1.53.

Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, with 8-1 vote in favor of keeping QE steady. The USDJPY had been attempting to hold the 121 area, but fell back to 120.30 lows after the data, before recovering over 120.80. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei rose just 0.17% while the Shanghai Comp gained 0.36%.

China, the Yuan surged, the most since March following comments from China’s central bank indicating that it will test yuan capital account convertibility in a free trade zone in Shanghai. The People’s Bank of China earlier strengthened its daily onshore reference rate.

Main Macro Events Today

• JPY Japan’s core CPI fell 0.1% y/y in September: which was a smaller decline than expected to match August’s 0.1% drop. But the core CPI (excludes fresh food) has still contracted for two straight months, moving in the opposite direction the BoJ is looking for. Total CPI was flat in September after the 0.2% y/y gain in August. The core-core, which excludes fresh food and energy, grew 0.9% y/y in September after the 0.8% rise in August. Meanwhile, the Tokyo core CPI fell 0.2% y/y in October after a matching 0.2% drop in September. The declines in national core CPI are supportive of further easing, if the BoJ feels it is necessary at this time. Other data showed a steady and expected 3.4% unemployment rate in September but a 0.4% y/y drop in household spending during September that ran contrary to expected growth.

• EUR EMU Inflation: October HICP was seen rising to 0.1% y/y from -0.1% y/y in the previous month, but could surprise on the upside, following the higher than expected German HICP reading yesterday. Inflation may be moving out of negative territory again, but the trajectory remains very weak and a slightly better than expected number is unlikely to deter the doves at the ECB from further easing, although if hawks will feel strengthened in their argument that the central bank already has done enough, especially if the Fed hikes in December, which should also take some pressure of the ECB to hike again.

• CAD GDP: It’s expected for GDP to rise 0.1% in August after the 0.3% gain in July. Further growth in August would contrast with the back to back declines seen from January to May, and track expectations for a rebound in Canada’s economy following the dismal performance in Q1 and Q2. The market anticipates a 3.0% Q3 GDP gain that will marginally outpace the BoC’s cautious 2.5% estimate..

• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The second release on October Michigan Sentiment is out later today and its expect the headline to be revised up to 93.0 (median 92.5) from 92.1 in the first release and 87.2 in September. Michigan Sentiment has displayed a fairly consistent trend towards upward revisions in the second release but the October Consumer Confidence measure dropped to 97.6 from 102.6 in September which could signal downside risk for the second Michigan release.

• U.S. Personal Income: September personal income data is out today and should show income up 0.1% (median 0.2%) with consumption growing 0.1% (median 0.2%) as well. There is downside risk to the release from the weak September employment report which saw aggregate income decline by 0.2% for the month on the back of softer hours worked data and a lower headline. Q3 GDP revealed a slower path of consumption which a 3.2% figure versus a stronger 3.9% in Q2.


Source link  
Brexit Battle Finally Gets Underway

Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed in tepid markets, as oil prices stalling below USD 43 per barrel. Fed speakers...

BoE Spooks Markets

After BoE and Fed spooked markets, the BoJ’s decision to keep policy on hold and maintained its promised for ongoing stimulus...

US reports revealed modest upside surprises for December trade

Asian stock markets mostly moved higher overnight, with Nikkei and Topix was trading close to levels last seen in December 2015 as the Yen weakened...


The global stock rally continued in Asia overnight

Reuters reported, the fast-growing financial technology (Fintech) sector could hold big “systemic risks” for the banking sector and the broader economy which need to be addressed by bank regulators around the world, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday...

Too-strong a dollar may hurt the economy

Japanese stock markets moved higher, led by Japanese bourses as the country managed to snap a 14-month long run of falling exports, which helped the Nikkei to close with a 1.4% gain...

Dollar found its feet after declining over the last day

Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, with Japanese bourses still under pressure (Nikkei closed down 0.55%). despite a dip in the Yen, as USD stabilised. Uncertainty over Trump’s regulatory and trade policies continues to weigh on investor sentiment...


The dollar has settled moderately lower

Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, after U.S. and European shares closed in the red Thursday. Japan and mainland China bourses managed to move higher (Chinese GDP beat expectations at 6.8%)...

Stock markets continued to stabilise

German HICP confirmed at 1.7% y/y, as expected, with prices up 1.0% m/m. The sharp acceleration from just 0.7% y/y in November was mainly due to base effects from lower energy prices and the breakdown showed that prices for heating oil jumped 21.9% y/y in December...

ECB policy was focused on avoiding deflation trap

Asian stock markets were mixed, with Japan and ASX heading south amid reports that U.K. Prime Minister May will announce plans for a hard Brexit at today’s keynote speech. Yen strength is also continuing to put pressure on the Japanese markets...

  


Share: