Key global events that traders will be watching this week

November 9, 2015

Research Team at TD Securities, lists down the three big events from across the globe, which traders will be keenly watching to gauge further direction of the global economy.

Key Quotes

“China Data Dump (11 Nov): It's the monthly Chinese data dump, with retail sales, industrial production, and inflation all out. The services sector and the consumer are vastly overlooked in China, especially when it comes to forecasting GDP. While there are no reliable leading indicators for this sector, retail sales should offer a good signal, and we lean towards a slight upside to mkt unchanged +10.9%/yr and pencil in 11%/yr. On the production side, we see upside to mkt forecast of 5.8%, even if our 6.5% proves to be a little ambitious. And for CPI, food prices moderated in October, so we expect a tick lower in overall CPI. 

US October Retail Sales (13 Nov): Spending momentum should remain on the weak side in October, and our expectation is for retail sales activity to post a very meagre 0.2% m/m advance, marking a modest acceleration in spending momentum after essentially stalling during the prior two months. Stronger auto sales and a rebound in gasoline sales should bolster the topline spending gains. However, excluding autos and gas, sales should rise at a subpar 0.1% m/m. Core spending activity should also be quite weak, rising at a subpar 0.1% m/m pace, reflecting the weakening tone in underlying household spending activity. The overall tone of this report should be weak, underscoring the falloff in consumer spending activity as the global headwinds to growth filter through to the rest of the economy. 

Fed Speakers (All week): The Fed calendar will be fairly busy next week, with remarks by Fed District Presidents William, Bullard, Evens, Dudley and Vice Chair Fischer likely to provide some much needed direction on the near term outlook for monetary policy. Fed Chair Yellen will also be making a public appearance, delivering opening remarks at the Fed Policy Conference.”

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