Weak UK wage data weighing on GBP

November 11, 2015

GBPUSD, 240 min 

UK unemployment unexpectedly dropped to a new cycle low of 5.3% in September data, down from 5.4% in August and July’s 5.5%. The consensus had been for an unchanged 5.4% reading. This takes the jobless rate further south of the BoE’s NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) threshold of 5.5%. The employment rate, meanwhile, rose to 73.7% the highest since records began in 1971.

Despite this, wage data disappointed: the ex-bonus average household pay packet rose 2.5% y/y in the three months to September, down from the 2.8% increase of August, while the with-bonus figure rose 3.0% y/y, unchanged from August and shy of the median forecast for 3.2%. The weaker wage data has been the main takeaway for markets, with sterling trading weaker in the wake of the release, though with inflation fractionally negative, incomes continue to trend firmly upwards in real terms. The October claimant count has been somewhat overshadowed on this occasion, coming in with a rise of 3.3k, slightly worse than the 1.4k median forecast. The claimant count rate remained unchanged at 2.3%.

GBPUSD is trading just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level after it reacted lower from the proximity of 1.5197 resistance level. It is trading near the upper 4h Bollinger Bands while the 30 period SMA and a consolidation from yesterday appears to give some support. Even though the market turned lower before hitting my intended shorting level I am still looking for short signals at or near 1.1597 resistance (coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci level) with an aim to cover the trade near 1.5060 level.

Publication source
HotForex information  HotForex reviews

October 27, 2016
U.K. can't have Brexit A La Carte
Asian stock markets headed broadly lower, as investors remain focused on the earnings season, with Canon Inc. the biggest drag on the index...
October 27, 2016
The ascending of the indices
As for the Australian index AUS200, we are yet again approaching the ascending channel. We should wait for the candlestick patterns to appear and try to buy the assets then...
October 27, 2016
Equities investors are becoming hard to satisfy
Uninspiring earnings projections from giant U.S. companies are weighing on Asian equities this morning after Wall Street stocks fell for a second day...

XM Rating
FIBO Group Rating
OctaFX Rating
HYCM Rating
FBS Rating
FOREX.com Rating

Porter Finance Rating
Beeoptions Rating
OptionBit Rating
Binary Brokerz Rating
TropicalTrade Rating
TopOption Rating