Macro events & news for November 17, 2015

November 17, 2015

FX News Today

Canada’s consumer confidence improved to 58.3 in week ended November 13, according to the Nanos Economic Mood Index. That follows a 58.3 figure in the prior week and leaves the strongest level since the 58.4 seen in the week ending October 17. The index slumped to 53.6 in the final week of February and was a run of 52 and 53 readings from late July through mid-September. But confidence has returned (although the index remains below the peak 60.6 seen in mid-July of 2014), which could be expressed through retail sales gains in Q4 as consumer spend gas price savings and take advantage of low interest rates.

Canada existing home sale rose 1.8% m/m in October (seasonally adjusted) following the 2.1% drop in September. Not surprisingly, sales strength was led by growth in Vancouver and Toronto. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins expressed confidence in the bank’s call for a soft landing in the housing sector, and this report does not present a new challenge to her view.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren leaned towards a quicker hike given risks like faster growth in commercial real-estate in a lengthy FT.com article over the weekend. Basically it is the old unintended consequences theory that might be forcing a stretch for yield or returns in a zero rate environment, as employment and inflation goals come within reach. He also said that the recent October jobs report was “pretty unequivocally positive,” though he was less certain about nascent signs of wage growth. Rosengren did hint that the policy divergence with other countries was boosting the dollar, though offset somewhat by domestic demand. If that divergence grew too far, however, it could imply a more gradual U.S. policy path than otherwise. Note, Rosengren is number 8 in terms of policy signaling, according to a WSJ survey.

Bundesbank cautiously optimistic on growth. The German central bank said in its latest monthly report that the labour market is in a “very good condition”, and that “the positive labour-market and wage outlook, as well as the strong immigration, create the conditions for spirited consumption in the economy to continue and for overall growth in the medium term to exceed potential”.

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