Currency movers for November 17, 2015

17 November, 2015

The AUD trades largely higher against other major pairs, after the RBA left its cash rate steady at 2.0%, meeting expectations. The RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes also maintained the shift to less-negative language about the Australian dollar (first seen in August) remarking that the currency was “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices” versus the previous guidance that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary”, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.

The EURUSD trades at a multi month low of 1.0643, as the USD makes fresh advances, with some safe-haven flows into the USD seen against the EUR in particular, following the terror attacks in Paris. The USD also trades higher versus NZD, the CHF and the CAD, as the Fed has indicated in recent weeks that it’s inclined to begin liftoff next month.

The USDJPY is holding onto recent gains , with the focus now on the BoJ, whose Thursdays Policy meeting outcome will be more uncertain following the GDP data report yesterday, putting Japan back into a technically recession.

The USDCAD is stronger following much weaker Canadian manufacturing data, weak energy prices are also against the CAD, as WTI crude flirted with the $40/bbl mark, and commodities generally weakened on the back of a broadly firmer dollar.

EURUSD, Daily

The contrasting policy stances of the ECB and Fed should maintain the EURUSD pair downward bias. The recent recovery attempts were short-lived, reversing from near the 1.0810’s raises the fears of a further decline toward the 1.0600 (round number) before a retest of the April lows at 1.0520.

GBPJPY, Daily (updated)

The GBPJPY has been trending higher and looks to continue the choppy recovery from the 180.60′s lows in the direction of 188 and 189.60-189.90′s further out. The current trending price move is also supported by the fact that the BoE has been hinting at a potential rate hike for some time, while the BoJ left policy unchanged, but the door remains open for QE, especially if growth falters.


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