Macro events & news for December 31, 2015

December 31, 2015

FX News Today

Lower oil prices weighed moderately on North American equity markets with the Dow Jones ending lower -0.66%, and the USD traded relatively steady. Today, the last trading day of the year should bring more of the same, as Japan is on holiday, and the economic calendar is almost nonexistent. The overnight Asian session traded in a narrow range, leaving the USDJPY in a holding pattern.

In Europe, the DAX is heading for a year end level that is still far off the highs seen earlier in the year but nevertheless markedly higher than at the start of the year. Thin holiday trade exaggerated moves, and Germany, Italy, Scandinavia and Switzerland will remain closed for the New Year’s Eve and tomorrow, while other European markets close early.

Eurozone M3 money supply growth decelerated to 5.1% y/y in November from 5.3% y/y in October, in line with Analyst forecast. The growth rate of loans to households rose to 1.4% y/y from 1.2% y/y and loans to non-financial corporations rose 0.9% y/y. Annual money supply growth remains high and lending slowly picks up as credit conditions improve. Much of the remaining weakness in lending to companies is also due to a lack of demand, as most remain happy to fulfill current orders with existing capacity.

Crude Oil fell to $36.40 session lows following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.6 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 2.0 mln bbl decrease. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen up 0.5 mln bbls actually rose 900k bbls, while distillate stocks were up 1.8 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 1.0 mln bbl rise. Refinery usage rose to 92.6% from 91.3%. Overall, a bearish report.

Gold took a bit of a tumble, with sellers apparently stepping in on the move under $1,065 , which had provided support over the past two sessions. The contract had peaked at $1,072.20 overnight, and is currently trading near $1,063.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: No Comment.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of December 26 are out today and should reveal an increase to 275k (median 270k) from 267k last week and 272k in the week prior. Claims have continued to show restraint through the holiday season despite an increase in volatility and December looks poised to leave a monthly average of 272k, only slightly higher than the 270k in average in November but up from the 263k average for October.

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