Fundamental analysis for January 13, 2016

January 13, 2016

The greenback received some support from the USA strong Friday's report where the employment rate rose much more than expected. In addition, the December labor market conditions index has improved to 2.9 vs. expected value of 0.0. The Conference Board employment trends index rose to 129.3 from the previous 128.3. This labor market picture could prompt the Fed to raise the rates earlier if the country inflation accelerates.

The China was again in the center of attention when its stock market fell more than 4%. As a result the euro was in demand as a funding currency. On the other hand, the “black gold” sales caused the German government bonds yield decline, causing the United States bond yield differential expansion. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

The UK industrial production report could not please the market with positive data: -0.7% m/m 0.9% y/y. The November production sector PMI lost 2.7 bp. The pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

One could see a moderate USD/JPY growth due to Japanese negative payments balance: the balance figures fell to 1.42 trillion yen from 1.49 trillion yen. There was a capital inflows decrease into Japanese securities and imports growth to a trade balance. The BoJ has lost 11.2 billion dollars in the second month of the fourth quarter which is also a negative factor for its economy. The consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 in December. The pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.

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