US CPI likely to head south

January 20, 2016

Research Team at Nomura, notes that the both US headline and core CPI were modestly stronger than expected in November as inflation of medical care service prices came in a little stronger than expected. 

Key Quotes

“Although medical care services prices are relatively volatile, the recent pickup in medical care prices poses some upside risks to our core CPI forecast going forward. Elsewhere, given the tightening in labor markets and low vacancy rate of rental houses, we continue to expect a gradual pick-up in core inflation in the medium term. 

We expect a 0.147% m-o-m (+2.1% y-o-y) gain in core CPI in December. We forecast that energy prices declined in December and that food prices were flat. As such, we expect headline prices to fall by 0.01% m-o-m (+0.8% y-o-y).” 

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