Fundamental analysis for February 02, 2016

February 2, 2016

The USA contradictory statistics could not undermine the dollar's strength. According to the preliminary data, the USA economy grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter against the forecast of + 0.8% and the previous value of 2.0%. Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures index rose in line with expectations at 1.2%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 92.0 against the forecast of 93.0 and the previous value of 93.3. In general, the economic picture is rather mixed. The recent Fed announcements that the country economy slowed down prepared the market to weak GDP data.

The January euro zone moderately positive inflation release cooled the bears' ardor who tried to play the card of a future monetary policy easing by the ECB in March. The US manufacturing sector ISM was also expected with negative data. The index came in at the level of 48.2 against the forecasted 48.1. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

According to the CBI the negative industrial orders balance dynamics signaled that the production sector PMI report could be worse than the consensus forecast. However the data came in better then forecasted median: 52.9 against 51.8. The pair pound/dollar sharply increased by the end of the trades.

The Bank of Japan became the chief newsmaker last week when the Bank had introduced a negative interest rate the first time in its history. According to the BoJ this rate will remain until the regulator sees a stable inflation rate of 2% per year. The pair dollar/yen slightly decreased by the end of the trades

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