18 April, 2016
The EUR/USD is building a small bear flag chart pattern (orange and green trend lines). A bullish break could indicate that the larger wave 4 (blue) is still not completed. A bearish break of the bear flag could indicate that a larger retracement or even reversal (and completion of wave 4) is taking place.
The EUR/USD chart is showing 2 wave possibilities. The main scenario is a bearish impulsive 5 wave which could occur when the bear flag breaks. The alternative is an ABC (blue) which seems more likely when there is a bullish break of the channel.
The GBP/USD is in a contracting triangle (green/red) chart pattern. The most likely wave count is a wave 1-2 (blue) but it would only become confirmed if price manages to at least break the support trend line (green). A break above the orange resistance line invalidates the wave count.
The GBP/USD could have completed a bullish ABC correction (pink) within wave 2 (blue) but a break below the horizontal support is needed before a bearish break below the trend line becomes more likely.
The USD/JPY made a bearish turn as indicated on Friday and bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Price is now retesting the bottom (green). A break below support could see price fall towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (green). The 61.8% Fibonacci target is the main target because it is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave B (sea green).
The USD/JPY broke below the support trend line (dotted green) but now needs to break horizontal support if the bearish momentum and trend is able to continue.
The EUR/USD has broken long-term support levels (dotted green) but still has important and decisive horizontals levels to break before a wave 5 (blue) of wave C (purple) can be confirmed...
The GBP/USD managed to break the resistance trend line (dotted red) despite the British vote on the EU membership taking place today (Thursday June 23rd). The bullish price action is most likely reflecting a reaction towards the opinion polls...
The EUR/USD has made a slight bearish bounce at the resistance trend line (red). The bullish momentum, however, is still in control and a breakout could see price move towards the Fibonacci levels. Of course, all currency pairs will be impacted by the British vote on Thursday June 23rd...
The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) after yesterday's strong bearish 4 hour candle appeared. From a long-term perspective price is still above key support such as the daily trend line (solid green)...
The EUR/USD did not manage to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level and instead broke below the support trend line (dotted green). This bearish breakout has seen strong momentum but price is still above long-term support (green)...
The EUR/USD retraced back to the 23.6% Fibonacci level of wave B (orange) and could now be building a channel (red/blue). A break below the channel could indicate that price is retracing back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level...
The EUR/USD is pausing at the 100% Fibonacci level of wave C versus wave A. Wave C (blue) corrections are typically equal to the length of wave A so a break below the 100% Fib target increases the likelihood of a potential wave 3 (purple)...
The EUR/USD broke below the horizontal support (dotted blue) as the bearish channel maintains its momentum to the 100% Fibonacci level. Wave C corrections are typically equal to the length of wave A so a break below the 100% Fib target increases the likelihood of a potential wave 3...
The EUR/USD broke the internal resistance trend line (dotted orange) and made a move up to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave B (blue). Price is now challenging the long-term support trend line (green)...