Break of patterns setup momentum in FX market

April 18, 2016

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a small bear flag chart pattern (orange and green trend lines). A bullish break could indicate that the larger wave 4 (blue) is still not completed. A bearish break of the bear flag could indicate that a larger retracement or even reversal (and completion of wave 4) is taking place.

1 hour

The EUR/USD chart is showing 2 wave possibilities. The main scenario is a bearish impulsive 5 wave which could occur when the bear flag breaks. The alternative is an ABC (blue) which seems more likely when there is a bullish break of the channel.

4 hour

The GBP/USD is in a contracting triangle (green/red) chart pattern. The most likely wave count is a wave 1-2 (blue) but it would only become confirmed if price manages to at least break the support trend line (green). A break above the orange resistance line invalidates the wave count.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could have completed a bullish ABC correction (pink) within wave 2 (blue) but a break below the horizontal support is needed before a bearish break below the trend line becomes more likely.

4 hour

The USD/JPY made a bearish turn as indicated on Friday and bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Price is now retesting the bottom (green). A break below support could see price fall towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (green). The 61.8% Fibonacci target is the main target because it is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave B (sea green).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke below the support trend line (dotted green) but now needs to break horizontal support if the bearish momentum and trend is able to continue.

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