Gold update for April 27, 2016

April 27, 2016

Gold, 240 min

I wrote three days ago that I’m looking for sell signals in gold at or inside my sell area near 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels between $1244 and $1254 with Target 1 at: $1227 – $1238. Market rallied to $1243.80 the next day and missed my entry level by 20c before turning lower and dropping to my target one. Now gold has moved inside my Sell Area again, but the bearish technical picture has deteriorated. Here’s a quick recap on what was discussed on gold in yesterday’s webinar.

I pointed out in the Live Analysis Webinar that we now have a support near the sell area. Also, yesterday price created a higher low in the 4h chart at $1232.70. The high from 25th is now a penetrated resistance turned into a potential support. This has given the price of gold technical support and helped it to creep higher and create higher lows in the hourly chart. Price could still turn from these levels but the probabilities are much lower and as a rule we are interested in low probability events. In yesterday’s webinar I said that I don’t like the idea of shorting near support and therefore could consider gold shorts near 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level at $1250.30.

Now we’ve seen price moving almost to $1250 but ideally I would’ve liked to see price moving to this level as a result of volatility caused by the FOMC statement. As a rule it makes sense to wait for the FOMC statement’s wording and market reactions to it before taking trades. As always we should trade the market accordingly and find new entry levels based on the principles taught in the webinars. The nearest 4h support and resistance levels are at $1243.80 and $1254 which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

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