24 May, 2016
The EUR/USD is pausing at the 100% Fibonacci level of wave C versus wave A. Wave C (blue) corrections are typically equal to the length of wave A so a break below the 100% Fib target increases the likelihood of a potential wave 3 (purple). A break above the channel does not necessarily mean the end of the downtrend channel as price could expand the sideways corrective (see 1 hour chart).
The EUR/USD could be expanding the wave 4 (grey) or wave 4 (green). For the moment the wave 5 (grey) has been marked completed at the double bottom. A break below the support trend line (solid green) could spark the bearish breakout for wave 5 (orange or green). The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (green) could act as resistance.
The GBP/USD is building a contracting triangle between support (green) and resistance (red). A break above the long-term resistance trend line (red) and the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave count where a bigger bearish ABC (pink) or 123 (purple) is expected.
The GBP/USD broke a support trend line yesterday (dotted green) to complete a potential wave 5 (blue), which could complete a wave A or wave 1 (green). A break above the inner resistance (red) increases the chance of a retracement within wave 2 (green). A break below the support trend line (olive green) could expand the bearish wave 1 (green).
The USD/JPY seems to have completed a wave 3 (purple) and is now retracing back as part of a wave 4 (purple). Typical wave 4 retracements are the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. A break below the 50% Fib level makes a wave 4 (purple) less likely.
The USD/JPY is in a bearish zigzag (orange) which has taken price down to the trend line and 38.2% Fibonacci level.
The EUR/USD has broken long-term support levels (dotted green) but still has important and decisive horizontals levels to break before a wave 5 (blue) of wave C (purple) can be confirmed...
The GBP/USD managed to break the resistance trend line (dotted red) despite the British vote on the EU membership taking place today (Thursday June 23rd). The bullish price action is most likely reflecting a reaction towards the opinion polls...
The EUR/USD has made a slight bearish bounce at the resistance trend line (red). The bullish momentum, however, is still in control and a breakout could see price move towards the Fibonacci levels. Of course, all currency pairs will be impacted by the British vote on Thursday June 23rd...
The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) after yesterday's strong bearish 4 hour candle appeared. From a long-term perspective price is still above key support such as the daily trend line (solid green)...
The EUR/USD did not manage to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level and instead broke below the support trend line (dotted green). This bearish breakout has seen strong momentum but price is still above long-term support (green)...
The EUR/USD retraced back to the 23.6% Fibonacci level of wave B (orange) and could now be building a channel (red/blue). A break below the channel could indicate that price is retracing back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level...
The EUR/USD broke below the horizontal support (dotted blue) as the bearish channel maintains its momentum to the 100% Fibonacci level. Wave C corrections are typically equal to the length of wave A so a break below the 100% Fib target increases the likelihood of a potential wave 3...
The EUR/USD broke the internal resistance trend line (dotted orange) and made a move up to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave B (blue). Price is now challenging the long-term support trend line (green)...
The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend lines (dotted red), which makes it likely that a swing high and swing low was completed at the trend line...
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