Majors dominated by robust downtrend channels

May 24, 2016

EUR/USD
4 hour

The EUR/USD is pausing at the 100% Fibonacci level of wave C versus wave A. Wave C (blue) corrections are typically equal to the length of wave A so a break below the 100% Fib target increases the likelihood of a potential wave 3 (purple). A break above the channel does not necessarily mean the end of the downtrend channel as price could expand the sideways corrective (see 1 hour chart).

1 hour

The EUR/USD could be expanding the wave 4 (grey) or wave 4 (green). For the moment the wave 5 (grey) has been marked completed at the double bottom. A break below the support trend line (solid green) could spark the bearish breakout for wave 5 (orange or green). The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (green) could act as resistance.

GBP/USD
4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a contracting triangle between support (green) and resistance (red). A break above the long-term resistance trend line (red) and the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave count where a bigger bearish ABC (pink) or 123 (purple) is expected.

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke a support trend line yesterday (dotted green) to complete a potential wave 5 (blue), which could complete a wave A or wave 1 (green). A break above the inner resistance (red) increases the chance of a retracement within wave 2 (green). A break below the support trend line (olive green) could expand the bearish wave 1 (green).

USD/JPY
4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a wave 3 (purple) and is now retracing back as part of a wave 4 (purple). Typical wave 4 retracements are the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. A break below the 50% Fib level makes a wave 4 (purple) less likely.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is in a bearish zigzag (orange) which has taken price down to the trend line and 38.2% Fibonacci level.

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