Oil dips on API figures

June 15, 2016

The oil market has had a bit of bump this evening as the recent API showed a slight build up in inventory which is currently against market expectations for tomorrows actual crude oil inventory data which is expected to be -2.29M. The build up of 1.52M barrels however is not something that should weigh heavily on traders' minds given that API and the official reading tend to be slightly off from each other and not always a true reflection of energy reserves in the US economy. While crude is feeling pressure on the charts the USD is not helping things either as it has strengthened over the last day leading to a slow drift lower for oil as a whole; and on top of this we have the Brexit fears which are impacting economic figures in the euro-zone and the UK. It's likely that a Brexit would have an effect on the global economy, and would likely lead to a drop in oil consumption due to business uncertainty, however it would not be a long term blip at all.

Looking at the technical plays on the oil chart oil prices are looking to push support at 47.84, this is leading to markets looking to pull back slightly on the H1 to test the bears at present. However, with a stronger USD this might be a bit of an ask at the moment. Any further drops looking to pressure support are likely to find strong support at 47.51 as the next level down, followed by 46.74. While it does look like a bearish market the current support band between 47.84 and 47.51 is quite strong and the market has pulled back numerous times for this level. A break out below this level will likely run for some time and traders will look to position themselves wisely here.

NZDUSD traders will be interested in the recent home sales data which came out of NZ which showed a decrease over the previous reading of 18.4% down to 13.6%. This comes on the back of recent pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to reign in the property market which has been overheating in the face of weak inflation and a sluggish economy. It looks to be working, but markets are taking this as a sign that the good times are indeed slowing down and the NZD has taken a drop as a result - especially with the current strengthening of the USD at present.

The NZDUSD has been somewhat bearish since the start of this week and traders have been doubling down when it comes to pressure at present. The market looks to be extending lower to support at 0.6916 and it could certainly be a case of more pressure added if we see a push through this level which is sustained, with the next level below this coming in at 0.6893. 

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