Positive but Nervous

20 June, 2016

By the end of this week, a great deal of uncertainty will have been removed from markets (UK markets in particular), with the UK referendum on EU membership over and done with. Weekend polls have removed the lead of the ‘leave’ camp, with the FT’s poll of polls now putting both sides level on 44% each (12% still undecided). Sterling has surged during Asia trade, up by more than 1.5% into the European open, having briefly touched the 1.46 level on sterling. Given the level of those who say they don’t know and also the impact of turnout on the night, there is still everything to play for on Thursday. Between now and then, it’s going to be a long week. Most of the central bank inaction was last week, leaving us with just RBA minutes released overnight, together with the latest minutes. Both FOMC’s Yellen and ECB’s Draghi are due to speak tomorrow. Note that stocks are also opening higher at the start of the week, boosted by the better tone seen in Asia and also the change in sentiment towards the EU poll on Thursday.

In terms of the main event of the week, voting takes place Thursday, ending at 21:00 local time with no exit polls. This means that markets will be hanging on the incoming results through the night, with the majority of results coming through between 01:00 and 03:00 local time on Friday. The tighter the results, then the longer we’ll have to wait until the final decision is known.


Source link  
Today's Focus on US Retail Sales

At 12:30 GMT, US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) will be released, with an expected 0.4% from -0.1% previously. Retail Sales Ex-Autos (MoM) (Mar) is expected...

Larry Kudlow - chief economic advisor

Yesterday, Larry Kudlow accepted the role of White House Chief Economic Advisor. He immediately targeted China and said that the next step...

EU leaders agree to shore up budget

EU European Council Meetings took place on Friday and EU Council President Donald Tusk made the following comments: EU leaders agreed to spend...


A Terrible Week for the Dollar

The dollar is down 2.2% since the start of this week in what’s come to be the currency’s worst performance in two years, with USDX falling to 88.15 in a...

U.S. Inflation Data in Focus

A quiet week ahead on the data front at first glance but US Inflation on Wednesday will be a major market mover. Market participants will view this data...

USD Bears Return

USD bears returned to the market as the tensions between North Korea and the US have greatly cooled this week. North Korean media reported that North Korea Leader Kim had delayed...


USD Bears

On Wednesday, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard (a non-voting member of the FOMC) stated in an interview that he, is opposed to further U.S. interest rate increases by the Federal...

Oil & GBP slide lower

Oil continues to be under “over supply” pressure resulting in prices dipping to 7 month lows. Yesterday Oil suffered a 2% drop as the increased supply...

Brexit Negotiations to be Triggered

Although Theresa May has stated before no deal is better than a bad deal, Chancellor said on Sunday that...

  


Share: