Sentiments turn bearish on oil

26 July, 2016

Sentiments turn bearish on oil

Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic have fallen to 3-month low as bullish traders found little reasons to keep betting on higher prices. Brent has declined by more than 15% after posting a 2016 high last month at $52.86 and WTI lost 16%. When prices started to fall from their peaks it was first considered as correction, but investors are getting worried its becoming a trend.

In fact, short term fundamentals should get us worried as ongoing oversupply likely to keep dragging prices lower.

Gasoline stocks on the rise  

Although U.S. crude oil inventories dropped for 10 straight weeks according to EIA, gasoline stocks have been on the rise. Unfortunately, the U.S. summer driving season, long considered to be a major driver of the oil market wasn’t robust enough to boost gasoline consumption and as we get closer to refiners’ maintenance season, oil demand will fall further.

Drillers adding rig counts

U.S. rig count was up for the fourth consecutive increasing by 15 to 462 for the week of July 22, and taking the number of rigs by 58 since mid-May.  This signals that the U.S. production declines are getting closer to an end, which is another negative factor for oil prices.

Hedge funds betting on lower prices

Hedge funds and money managers have been turning bearish on oil most recently by taking profit from recent bullish positions and now they seem betting on lower prices by establishing new shorts. This clearly reflects how sentiments have changed from three months when bullish bets were at record high.

Technicals support the bearish outlook

Both benchmarks fell below their 100-days moving averages on Monday for the first time since March, this would likely add to the pressure as many traders view it as selling signal. However, I still consider a dip below $40 is a good opportunity to jump in if you’re a long term investor, with target above $50 until year end. 


Source link  
EUR bulls continue to dominate

Euro traders have been living the dream as of late as the EURUSD climbs the charts steadily. Currently the Euro is sitting at a 14 month high...

BoJ pushes inflation target

The Yen traded slightly lower against the Dollar early on Thursday after the BoJ kept interest rates on hold and pushed the deadline...

Dollar tumbles on healthcare bill collapse

U.S. political turmoil took center stage once again on Tuesday after two Republican senators Mike Lee and Jerry Morgan announced their opposition...


Fed caution pressures Dollar

It has certainly been an eventful week for the financial markets, as comments from central bank heavyweights which fueled monetary policy speculations...

Oil bulls jump on OPEC report

Oil markets saw some life injected back into them today as OPEC members hit 97% compliance in cuts set out by the organisation...

Yen pairs falter on risk appetite

The Japanese Yen has long been the favourite for currency hedging but has suffered in recent weeks as the market throws of negative sentiment...


USD falls on disappointing figures

US ADP non-farm employment change disappointed the market today coming in at 158K (185 exp) leading to a large sell off in the dollar...

Divided Fed keeps markets directionless

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting on 13-14 June showed that monetary policy members were split over the timing...

Gold under pressure as equities & yields rally

Equity investors entered the third quarter with an optimistic attitude. Despite the low trading volumes and shortened U.S. trading session...

  


Share: