The odds for a December rate hike skyrocket by 50%

August 25, 2016

The US Dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, still lagging behind the rate hike odds which are already past 50% futures on the FED Funds rate for Decembers show. The Greenback index rose by 0.13% as of 10:31 GMT time posting the biggest advances against the European currency, EUR/USD -0.25% at 1,1279.

The GBP/USD pair rally has been offset by the strengthening Pound as the consistently positive economic updates dampen the post-Brexit concerns, reviving the investment appeals of the country. The UK loans for the House Purchase reports were released on Wednesday showing that the amount of issued loans in July fell to 37.7K from the previous 39,7K in June. Falling short of analysts’ estimates of 38K. The sterling flew into new highs after the BoE rate cut at 1.3250 in the late London session but bounced to 1.3230 later.

Reports showed that the German GDP growth (w.d.a.) in the second quarter remained unchanged in annual terms rising the same 1.8% in April – June period. The exports rose 1.2% in the same period, beating the 0.7% estimate, while the imports decline slowed to -0.1%. Analysts expected it would drop by -0.3%.

The housing market in the US showed a sign of pickup with the Mortgage Application paring a decline to -2.1% from the previous reading of -4.0%. The house price index and Existing Home Sales reports will expand the knowledge of consumer spending data in the US. This, in turn, will help to estimate the potential of economic growth in the country.

The oil prices traded in the red territory on Wednesday, as market participants focused on fresh weekly data.

The US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on crude oil inventories today at 10:30 am ET. The data may show a decline in the US crude oil inventories from last week by 455K barrels, while gasoline stocks are forecast to fall by 1.166 million barrels. The distillate stocks, including heating oil and diesel, are expected to show an increase by 400K barrels.

After the sessions closed on Tuesday the American Petroleum Institute, said the US crude stocks unexpectedly rose by 4.46 million barrels for the week ending on August 19th. The report also showed a decline in the gasoline stocks by 2.1 million barrels while the distillate stocks, including diesel fuel, declined by 800K Barrels. WTI fell 2.02% to 47.12, Brent lost 1.36% trading at $49.28/bbl.

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