The dollar has continued to ebb

September 7, 2016

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan closing down (-0.41% at 17,012) as the Yen strengthened on media reports casting doubt on the BoJ’s willingness to add further easing. The ASX, which underperformed yesterday, moved higher as the Aussie weakened as growth slowed down in the second quarter. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are posting gains, pointing to opening gains, on stock markets, after yesterday’s broad move south in late trade. Bund and Gilt futures moved higher yesterday, with Bunds outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing going into tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The weak German production figures (see below) will only add to the Bund move. ВВВ The European calendar has U.K. production data for July, seen falling -0.1%. The Swedish Riksbank meeting will be watched carefully as a precursor to tomorrow’s ECB meeting and the central bank are likely to keep the Repo rate steady at -0.5%.

FX Summary:ВВВ The dollar has continued to ebb as Fed expectations cycled back towards the no-case-for-a-September hike following weaker than expected ISM services and LMCI data yesterday, which resonated with the sub-forecast jobs report on Friday. USD-JPY, which has continued to pace broader dollar declines, descended for a third straight session, logging a 12-day low at 101.19 as it extended losses from Friday’s peak at 104.32. The pair has breached below the 20-day moving average, at 101.55, which now reverts as resistance, ahead of 101.93-95 and the 50-day moving average at 102.66. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also fell, causing some indigestion on the Tokyo stock exchange, where the Nikkei 225 closed with a 0.4% loss, underperforming regional peers. Elsewhere, dollar softness saw EUR-USD and AUD-USD edge out respective 12-day highs at 1.1264 and 0.7688. Cable settled slightly below the eight-week peak it saw yesterday, at 1.3445.

Fedspeak:ВВВ San Francisco Fed President JohnВВВ Williams:ВВВ Low level of long-term yields is not just because of fed policy, a ‘reasonable person’ would expect US rates to rise gradually over time. Makes sense to raise rates “sooner rather than later” Inflation expected to rise to 2% in next two years and unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% over the next twelve months. Now is the time to consider new inflation target and “actively study new policy options”.

German July industrial production dropped -1.5%:ВВВ A much more pronounced decline than even we expected and our forecast for a -0.4% m/m drop was already far below consensus, with Bloomberg predicting a 0.1% m/m rise. In fact this was the steepest decline in almost 2 years. June was revised up, but this didn’t prevent the annual rate to drop into negative territory in July. The correction may partly reflect the usual volatility over the summer, as school holidays in Germany are staggered throughout the states and differently timed every year, which means different timings for the industrial rich states can distort data. Still, with the orders trend also disappointing, and manufacturing sentiment coming off, the data adds to signs that the German economy is cooling.

Main Macro Events Today ВВВ  ВВВ  ВВВ  ВВВ 

UK Inflation ReportВВВ –ВВВ 09:00 GMT – Governor Carney and members of the MPC testify before the UK Parliaments Treasury Committee (for approximately 2 hours). Expect some tough questioning from the members as some perceive the BOE’s actions inappropriate, this will be vigorously defendedВВВ  by the Governor and volatility for GBP pairs can be expected.

ВВВ BOC Rate StatementВВВ –ВВВ 14:00 GMT – The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 0.50%. The cautiously optimistic outlook on growth and inflation is expected to remain, as the Q2 GDP report was consistent with an expected rebound in Q3 GDP.

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