Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat

September 12, 2016

United States:В В This week’s U.S. calendar includes several interesting releases that could have some bearing on the Fed’s decision on September 21. The Treasury budget deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to ease to -$98.0 bln in August from -$112.8 bln in July,. The MBA mortgage market applications survey is due (Wednesday), along with import prices seen unchanged and export prices -0.1% in August, while there may be an EIA inventory correction from huge storm-related draws last week that bolstered crude oil above $47 bbl before the boom went bust Friday. On tap next is August retail sales (Thursday), forecast to rise 0.2% В or 0.3% ex-auto, with a downward bias given weak auto sales and mixed employment. Also due is August PPI, expected to rise just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core. The Philly Fed index is set to rebound to 3.0 in September В vs 2.0, whereas the Empire State may rise to -1.0 in September vs -4.2. Initial jobless claims are projected to snap back 11k to 270k), with August industrial production to shrink 0.5% vs 0.7% and capacity use dipping to 75.5% from 75.9%. Business inventories are forecast to fall 0.1% in July В vs 0.2%. August CPI is seen rising 0.1% headline (Friday) and 0.2% core, while September Michigan sentiment (preliminary) rises to 90.5 from 89.8 in August.

Canada: Economic data is highlighted by manufacturing (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in shipment values during July following the 0.8% gain in June. The August existing home sales report (Thursday) and the August Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday) also feature. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins (Wednesday) will present a lecture at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.

Europe:В After the initial confidence data following the Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat, the August round was disappointing and markets will be watching the German September ZEW release (Tuesday) closely. We are looking for an improvement to 3.0 from 0.5 in the previous month, which would mean the number of those optimistic about the outlook continued to rise. The rest of the week’s data calendar focuses mostly on final inflation readings for August, with the German HICP (Tuesday) expected to be confirmed at 0.3%, the Spanish (Tuesday) at -0.3%, the French (Wednesday) at 0.4% y/y and the Italian (Wednesday) at -0.3% y/y, which should leave the overall Eurozone number onВ ThursdayВ unrevised from the preliminary reading at 0.2% y/y. Even core inflation at 0.8% y/y remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. ECB PresidentВ Draghi speaks at an award ceremony onВ Tuesday, although the central bank head is unlikely to add much to the central message conveyed at his September policy statement.

UK:В The BoE meets on policy (announcingВ Thursday) for the third time since the vote to leave the EU in late June. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.25%, adjacent to continuing QE operations that were detailed as part of August’s policy bazooka. В Data on the calendar this week is highlighted by August inflation numbers (Tuesday), employment figures covering July and August (Wednesday), and official August retail sales (Thursday). We expect headline CPI to tick up to a cycle high of 0.7% y/y from 0.6% in July, and the core CPI reading to 1.4% form 1.3%, with the effects of post-Brexit vote weakness in sterling starting to impact. The laggard official unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, as is the more timely claimant count rate, at 2.2%.В  Retail sales are seen dipping 0.2% m/m in August, correcting after the strong a July, when sales rose 1.4% m/m.

China: August foreign direct investment figures are tentatively dueВ Monday, followed by August industrial production (Tuesday), which is expected to inch up to 6.1% y/y from 6.0% previously. August retail sales (Tuesday) are penciled in at 10.1% y/y from 10.2%. August fixed investment (Tuesday) is seen slowing to a 7.8% y/y clip from 8.1%.

Japan: The Q3 MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is expected to reveal deterioration to -13.0 from -11.1 in Q2. The all-industry index is reported as well. July revised industrial production (Wednesday) is seen unchanged at 0.0% y/y.

Australia:В Reserve Bank of Australia fields three speakers this week. Assistant Governor, Economics, Kent delivers a speech at the Bloomberg Breakfast Address (Tuesday). Head of Payments Policy Department, Tony Richards, speaks at the 26th Annual Credit Law Conference (Wednesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle takes the podium in London at the TradeTech FX Europe Conference (Wednesday). August employment (Thursday) is expected to improve 20.0k after the 26.2k rise in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7% in August, identical to the 5.7% seen in July.

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