Monetary policy has been very effective

27 September, 2016

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to reverse earlier losses and are mostly up on the day, led by Hond Kong where casinos and banks outperformed as traders followed the U.S. presidential debate and judged Clinton the winner. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, after yesterday’s sell off where concerns about Deutsche Bank AG weighed on financial stocks in Europe and a drop in yields hit U.S. banks. Oil prices are down on the day and off earlier highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 45 per barrel ahead of the OPEC meeting, with some lingering hopes of an agreement on output caps. Gold hit highs of USD 1341 yesterday before settling to 1334.  The European calendar has German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as EMU M3 money supply growth and the U.K.’s CBI distributive trade survey.

FX Update: The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar rallied on what appears to be a generally perceived victory, at least from the perspective of financial markets, for Clinton in the first presidential debate of the campaign. Trump’s protectionist views on trade (he said during the debate that NAFTA was the worse trade deal that the U.S. had ever signed) doesn’t sit too well with markets. The peso rallied by over 1.5%, driving USDMXN to an eight-day lows below 19.50. USDCAD, meanwhile, dove back under 1.3200 as the Canadian dollar rallied, having earlier logged a six-month peak at 1.3275. USDJPY lifted as stocks rebounded in Asia, with the pair recouping toward 101.00 after earlier logging a one-month low at 100.08. EURUSD remained mired in a narrow range in the mid 1.12s.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan would have been comfortable with a September hike, he said in comments at an energy sector event. Kaplan is not a voter this year, but does vote on the FOMC in 2017. He remains concerned about the distortions created by low rates. He wants to wait to see how the next three months unfold and added he’ll be hawkish at times, and dovish at times.  Fed governor Tarullo would like a tougher capital plan for large U.S. banks, while affording a little relief for smaller lenders, estimating that the largest banks would likely hold “significantly more” capital under forthcoming “stress test” reforms from the Fed.

ECB’s Draghi: Monetary policy has been very effective, adding that the policy effect is not yet “exhausted”, while stressing again that low interest rates are a symptom of low growth. At the same time, Draghi said the ECB never discussed monetary financing, although of course the German legal challenges against some of Draghi’s emergency measures show that not everyone shares the same definition of that.

US Data Reports: Revealed a 7.6% new home sales drop to a still-solid 609k August rate that trimmed the hefty July pop to an upwardly-revised 659k (was 654k) expansion-high to leave a respectable sales path into Q3. Most housing metrics performed well through the spring and summer season despite weak residential construction in the Q2 GDP report, and weak monthly new construction figures through July that imply residential construction weakness in Q3 as well. We also saw a largely expected rise in the Dallas Fed index to -3.7 in September from -6.2, leaving both an upward trend and a 21st consecutive reading in negative territory. The component data were stronger than the headline, and the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose to a respectable 51.2 from 50.7 in August.

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