11 October, 2016
The dollar/yen is currently showing bullish signs with the likelihood that the yen could be weakening in over the coming weeks. Although the currency pair is seen struggling near the 104.00 resistance level the technical point to a potential bullish momentum that is likely to build up. There is a potential for a possible retracement back to the 102.00 – 101.60 levels of support in the short term ahead of a medium term upside bias. Although the fundamentals this week are fairly quiet, Friday’s speech by Janet Yellen will be the one to watch for, in an otherwise quiet trading week. The US dollar continues to remain firm with the current bullish momentum keeping the dollar well bid.
XAUUSD Daily Analysis
XAUUSD (1259.10): Gold continues to remain on the watch list as the potential for a reversal off the support level at 1250 continues to build the case for a short term retracement back to 1300. Price action was muted yesterday with prices posting intraday highs of 1264.85 before pulling back lower. On the 4-hour chart, however, the Stochastics has already moved close to the overbought level and further near term consolidation could be expected. However, as long as the support level of 1250 holds, gold prices are likely to inch higher. The bullish case is invalidated on a bearish reversal pattern near 1250.
USDJPY Daily Analysis
USDJPY (103.90): USDJPY is seen retesting the resistance level near 104.00 despite last Friday's bearish close. The dollar managed to breakout above the 103.70 - 103.50 resistance zone earlier today. However, forming a lower high near 104.00 could signal early indication of a near-term correction towards the first support level at 103.00 followed by 102.00 with the correction likely to stall near 101.75 - 101.61 support level. The 4-hour rising median line is likely to be breached following a lower high and a median line failure at 104.00. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart points to a bearish divergence with the oscillator failing to confirm the current highs.
AUDUSD Daily Analysis
AUDUSD (0.7552): AUDUSD has broken down to 0.7555 support after prices briefly broke through the head and shoulders neckline support of 0.7601, which is now confirmed as resistance with prices being rejected strongly above 0.7610. To the downside, a breakdown below 0.7555 will trigger further declines in AUDUSD towards the next main support at 0.7515. However, watch for price to consolidate near the current support level. On the daily chart, following the two consecutive days of doji candlestick pattern, a bearish close today could trigger further declines well below 0.7515.
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