USD eyes durable goods orders; pending home sales

27 October, 2016

The US Dollar Index doji pattern and the subsequent bearish close yesterday is indicating signs of exhaustion as traders wait for more catalyst from today's durable goods orders and pending home sales. Median forecasts point to a 0.2% and a 0.1% increase on the core and headline figure. Focus, however, remains on tomorrow's preliminary GDP report. Expectations for a firm GDP print emerged after yesterday's goods trade balance showing a 5.2% decline in the deficit from August.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.0900): EURUSD was bullish yesterday but failed to hold on to its gains. Price pulled back from intraday highs of 1.0946 to close the day a few pips above the previous day's high at 1.0907. The breakout from the falling median line shows the current dip coinciding with a higher low, which is indicative of further leg to the rally. Resistance level at 1.1000 remains in sight for the euro as long as price doesn't fall below 1.0900, which could upset the bullish bias.

AUDUSD Daily Analysis

AUDUSD (0.7630): AUDUSD closed with a pinbar yesterday after testing intraday highs towards 0.7708. Price action in today's session is currently bearish, and this view is validated by the downside breakout from the rising median line. A pullback to the resistance zone of 0.7660 - 0.7682 could infer further downside towards 0.7580 followed by 0.7519. Minor support at 0.7613 is seen which could offer a short-term bounce to AUDUSD currently keeping price ranging between 0.7613 and 0.7660.

XAUUSD Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1266.91): Gold prices closed with an inside bar yesterday coming after a rather flat rally from 1250. Price action is seen testing the 1265.50 - 1261.50 support level currently and we could expect a rebound off this support. Stochastics are also well positioned to confirm the reversal off this support level that had previously acted as resistance. With the price action forming a higher low near 1265.50 - 1261.50, gold prices could be preparing for a leg higher. Resistance at 1275.15 will be a need to be cleared which could give way for gold prices to test 1300 over the week or two. The bullish bias could be invalidated on a daily close below 1261.50 which will then keep gold range bound above 1250.


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