FBI intervention ends nine days losing streak, markets pricing Clinton victory

8 November, 2016

Risks assets received a boost on Monday after the FBI announced it will not change the conclusion it reached in July after investigating Hillary Clinton's new emails.

The S&P 500 reacted as if a Clinton win looks more certain, surging by more than 2% and ending 9 days losing streak, its longest in more than three and a half decades. The Mexican peso led the rally in currencies, while safe-haven bonds and gold were dumped with the market’s fear gauge VIX index.

There’s no doubt that financial markets and businesses are hoping for a Clinton win with latest polls supporting this outcome, however in a year full of surprises I will be reluctant to take big positions and would rather hedge against the unknown especially that a Clinton win is priced in to some extent. We shouldn’t forget that the Pound traded at 1.5 against the dollar on the day of the Brexit referendum.

Whether Clinton or Trump wins the election, the longer-term impact will be decided by who rules the Senate and the House. Both the House and Senate are currently controlled by Republicans, and according to FiveThirtyEight the Democrats have 68.9% chance of recapturing the Senate. Markets best case scenario should be a continued congressional gridlock which makes it difficult for the president to pass new legislations.

With almost 24 hours remaining to the election results, investors today seem to sit on the sidelines. The U.S. dollar is moving in a very narrow range and Asian equities are flat.

Earlier today, data from China showed that both imports and exports shrank for the second straight month in October, leaving the country with $49.06 billion trade surplus. Overseas shipments dropped 7.3% year-on-year indicating that global demand for Chinese goods remained sluggish especially from Europe where exports slid 8.7%. The Yuan depreciation was not enough to offset weak global growth and Chinese officials are left with little options to meet their growth targets, however I believe that the Yuan will continue to depreciate against the dollar but in a slow pace to prevent big shocks like the ones seen in the beginning of 2016.


Source link  
USD and Oil in focus

The USD lifted again against all majors, as US retail sales m/m came in strong at 0.5%, in line with expectations. At the same time the previous month was...

Investors in cautious mode

Global equity and foreign exchange markets were relatively quiet on Wednesday as the U.S. financial markets were closed in observance of Independence Day...

Recession fears rise as trade war heats up

It has been an interesting first half for 2018. Economic fundamentals and politics took center stage as both fought for market influence.


Relentless rout for emerging currencies

While the speed of selling has slowed down compared to the early part of the week, emerging market currencies have continued to show...

Yuan weakness accelerates

Concerns over the possibility of an upcoming trade war are expected to remain front and center of investor focus once again today. Although the trading atmosphere is not quite as negative...

Lira jumps higher on Erdogan victory

All eyes are on the Turkish Lira this morning with the currency rallying sharply in early trade today, following the news that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan...


Trade war fears ease, but for how long

Global stocks have bounced back to life after China's central bank calmed markets by urging investors to stay calm and rational. While this move by...

Oil slips further ahead of OPEC meeting

Oil markets have suffered another blow today as US oil inventories showed an increase of 2.07M barrels (-2.1M exp), while at the same time US gasoline...

Trade war fears to dominate market

After imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on its closest allies, the U.S. will be facing enormous criticism at the G7 summit on Friday in Quebec...


In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has gained 9.11% and reached $7331.07. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has lost -0.2459% and is now at $1.171. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has gained 14.55% and is now at $502.585. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.


Top Brokers offering Forex Market Analysis



Forex Currencies Forecasts



Top 10 Forex Brokers 2018

# Broker Review
1easyMarketseasyMarkets90%
2FXTMFXTM88%
3HYCMHYCM86%
4FIBO GroupFIBO Group79%
5FxProFxPro78%
6FXCMFXCM73%
7AvaTradeAvaTrade69%
8HotForexHotForex68%
9XMXM68%
10Alfa-ForexAlfa-Forex66%
  


Share: