US election results down to the wire

9 November, 2016

The markets were taken by surprise as polls closed and counting began in the US. At the time of writing, Trump is seen leading with 238 votes to Clinton's 209 in the race to 270 electoral votes needed to win. As polling began and the race tightened, the markets were in a risk off mode with equities across the globe posting sharp declines. The flight to safety has sent the yen and gold prices surging. The biggest decline however was the Mexican Peso where the futures markets are showing a 11% decline currently.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.1281): EURUSD spiked off the 1.1000 support and is currently up by over 2.3% on the day as price nears the key resistance level of 1.1300. Further upside can be expected only on a clean break above this resistance level which opens 1.1400 as the next level of interest. In the near term, there is scope for a pullback in EURUSD, down to 1.1143 which will see support being established here while keeping the bullish bias intact.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (101.40): USDJPY looks on track to retest the 100Yen psychological support level following a near reversal near the 105.20 - 105.25 minor resistance. In the near term, USDJPY could see a pullback towards 102.00 ahead of the decline down to 100.00. In the event that USDJPY breaks down below the 100 psychological barrier, further declines could be expected in the dollar which is likely to test the June Brexit lows near 99Yen. On the weekly chart, note that USDJPY is on its way to forming a descending triangle pattern with support seen near 100.00. A break down here could send USDJPY down to the 94Yen handle.

XAUUSD Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1330.95): Spot gold is up nearly 4.3% following yesterday's decline towards 1275. As noted in our commentary, Gold posted a strong reversal off this support level and is now nearing the minor resistance at 1338 - 1341. In terms of a pullback, expect gold to slide back to 1315 - 1307 which will keep the bullish momentum intact. A break above 1338 - 1341 resistance will then see gold price challenging 1360 handle.


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