Doubts on OPEC deal keep markets on the edge

30 November, 2016

The OPEC meeting in Vienna is due today, and the markets are unsure on the outcome of the meeting. After what seemed like positive news following the information agreement in Algiers, the increase in production levels since October and the continuing disagreement between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq has left investors doubtful if OPEC will manage to agree on production cuts. A larger than expected cut is essential for oil prices to make any meaningful gains and a "no-agreement" could potentially send oil prices lower.

Crude Oil (WTI) Intra-day Analysis

CL (45.45): Crude oil futures for January delivery is seen currently at the support level of 45.40 - 45.18 which marks the measured move of the previous descending triangle pattern. Prices initially rallied back to retest the broken support of descending triangle at 47.47 - 47.30 to establish resistance and is seen back at the lower support. On the 4-hour chart, oil prices can be seen ranging between the mentioned support and resistance levels and a breakout above or below these price levels will signal further continuation. The technical outlook for crude oil remains indecisive, perhaps aptly reflecting the trader's outlook on the outcome of today's OPEC meeting.

EURUSD Intra-day Analysis

EURUSD (1.0633): EURUSD has been consolidation near 1.0600 region following the doji candlestick last week and closed with an inside bar yesterday. On the 4-hour chart, the price is showing signs of a potential test towards 1.0600 to establish support following which further upside can be expected. If the support holds, EURUSD could be seen rising 1.0700 which marks the initial resistance level followed by further upside if price manages to breach this level. The unfilled gap at 1.08550 remains a likely price level of interest to the upside.

USDCAD Intra-day Analysis

USDCAD (1.3441): USDCAD continues to consolidate within 1.3500 - 1.3400 region, but the upside is likely to stall in the near term. Watch for a potential breakout below 1.3400 - 1.3379 support level which could potentially signal further downside in the U.S. dollar. The next main support comes in at 1.3285 which could be tested thereafter. To the upside, a move back to 1.3500 and a close above this resistance level will signal further upside and invalidate any bearish hints of a correction.


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