OPEC is back, who else wants to join the party?

1 December, 2016

On Wednesday OPEC defied sceptics by telling the world we’re still united. When many thought that OPEC had no more influence on oil prices, yesterday proved them wrong with Brent prices surging by 9% to trade above $50. For the first time since 2008 the cartel members managed to put their political conflicts aside and strike a deal that benefits their economic agenda by reducing output 1.2 million barrels a day starting January 2017 for six months.

Russia also said it will come on board and cut output by up to 300,000 barrels per day in H1 2017, and still to be seen whether other countries will join when OPEC and non-OPEC producers meet on December 9 in Doha.

Energy stocks around the world are enjoying one of their best days in many years with S&P/ASX and Topix energy indices up by more than 7% and U.S. S&P500 energy index closing 5% higher yesterday. 

Will prices continue to move higher?

If you were long oil early Wednesday, then you’ve received your Christmas gift already, but whether prices will continue to surge higher depends on multiple factors.

  • Which countries other than non-OPEC Russia will commit to a cut?
  • Will the process be monitored effectively, or chances of prisoner’s dilemma that encourages some members to exceed their production quota come into play?
  • Will U.S. drillers return fast if prices held above $50 and how many rigs will be reactivated?
  • On the demand side, are we going to see higher revisions due to Trump’s infrastructure policies?

If oil prices traded in the range of $50-$60, shale isn’t likely to return in massive levels, however if prices spiked above $60 then the shale industry will return as a major player to rebalance prices. The bottom line is OPEC’s deal will put floor on the downside, but on the upside multiple factors should be taken into consideration.  


Source link  
Sterling steady ahead of UK inflation data

Having successfully moved into phase 2 of Brexit talks, the focus will shift back to economic data in the UK. Today’s November CPI will likely be a market...

Market waits on Bank of Canada

With a US tax bill and a Brexit currently flying around in the markets it's hard not to get lost on the bigger picture for other countries as well.

Investors rotate from Tech to Financials

U.S. stock indices ended mixed on Wednesday. While the Dow-Jones industrial average closed at a record high after U.S. GDP showed the...


Consumer confidence hits record high

Consumer confidence was the star of the show today as it came in with its strongest reading since 2000. The reading of 129.5 (124 exp), is one of...

SP500 lifts to record high on US housing

The US market continued to steal the spotlight today in Monday trading as it continued to look robust as usual. New home sales m/m came...

Equities slide ahead of a busy week

Despite a record high close on the S&P 500 last Friday, Asian equities edged lower, led by Korean markets. Chinese stocks continued to decline...


Yen bulls jump on weak FED inflation

FOMC meeting minutes are always greeted warmly by the markets, as a glimpse of the potential future direction of the FED going forward...

S&P 500 hits record high

The US equity markets jumped sharply today on the back of positive economic data as US home sales m/m came in strongly at 5.48M (5.40M exp)...

European currencies dip on German politics

The Euro had a pause for concern in the evening trading session as the coalition talks in Germany fell apart leading to a political crisis in Germany.

  


Share: