Fed hikes rates as expected, BoE in focus

15 December, 2016

The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds target rate by 25 basis points bringing the short-term interest rates to 0.75%, as expected by the markets. The central bank also signaled three rate hikes next year. The widely publicized event saw the U.S. dollar extend gains on the rate hike forecast with USDJPY continuing to push to new highs, while the Dow Jones pulled back from its record highs on the news. Looking ahead, U.S. consumer inflation data will be the next main event to watch today. The Bank of England's monetary policy meeting is also due where the central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (117.44): The dollar continued to extend gains against the yen yesterday as prices rallied to a new 52-week high of 117.40. However, this strong rally which is now into a sixth consecutive week of gains could start to show signs of exhaustion as price trades in the crucial resistance level of 117.40 - 116.15. A reversal in this resistance zone could validate a correction that has been long overdue. Support at 106.90 - 105.41 remains yet to be tested in the near term. Alternately, a breakout above 117.40 - 116.14 resistance level could signal further continuation to the upside, provided support can be established at this freshly breached resistance level.

EURGBP Intra-day Analysis

EURGBP (0.8382): EURGBP remains consolidating near the 0.8373 support level as the evolving inverse head and shoulders pattern continues to be in play. As long as price does not close below 0.8330, the bias remains to the upside provided; EURGBP can manage to breakout above 0.8467 minor resistance to extend gains to the neckline resistance at 0.8572. Today's Bank of England's monetary policy meeting could prove to be the catalyst which could see some volatility in the EURGBP.

USDCAD Intra-day Analysis

USDCAD (115.22): USDCAD posted a strong bullish reversal off the support at 1.3100 yesterday with prices currently seen at the resistance zone of 1.3285 - 1.3255. A near-term pullback to 1.3165 is quite likely where an unfilled gap rests. This short term bearish view is also validated by the hidden bearish divergence seen on the 4-hour chart. A retest towards 1.3165 could potentially signal renewed bullish momentum which could see USDCAD extend its gains towards 1.3400 - 1.3379. Alternately, failure to post a retracement to yesterday's gains could see USDCAD continue to push higher as the resistance level of 1.3400 - 1.3379 is likely to keep a lid on any further gains.


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