19 December, 2016
The U.S. dollar closed bearish on Friday forming an inside bar with the price action currently seen extending the bearish momentum. The economic calendar is quiet today with no major news releases of interest with the exception of the German Ifo business climate data. The short-term weakness in the greenback is likely to see a short term correction across other currencies including gold. Of interest is the USDJPY which has posted strong gains over the past few weeks. Tomorrow's Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is expected to show no change in the key interest rates or QE purchases. Look for 114.00 support which could be the difference between either a consolidation or a short-term correction in prices.
EURUSD Intra-day Analysis
EURUSD (1.0460): EURUSD bounced off the 1.0400 support level on Friday with the price action in early Asian trading session today showing some bullish follow through, supported by the daily Stochastics also moving up from the oversold level. However, the single currency is not out of the woods yet as price needs to post a convincing close above 1.0500 handle to ascertain further gains. On the 4-hour chart, technical resistance is seen at 1.0533 which needs to be cleared to pave the way for further gains towards 1.0700 handle.
USDJPY Intra-day Analysis
USDJPY (117.26): USDJPY formed an inside bar which could signal a near-term correction to the support at 114.00 on a bearish close below Thursday's low of 117.01. The dollar gave back some of the gains late Friday after media outlets reported news of China capturing a U.S. underwater drone. Although the issue now seems to have been played down, the dollar is looking a tad weaker against the yen. Below 114.00 support, the further downside could be seen coming for a move towards 109.75 - 109.50 support.
XAUUSD Daily Analysis
XAUUSD (1139.01): Gold is attempting to breakout from the inside bar range from Thursday with further bullish price action above Thursday's high of 1144.58 likely to signal further gains in the short term. The technical resistance at $1200 remains the key level of interest to the upside. If this upside correction is validated with a daily close above 1150.00, provide no new lower lows are formed. The Stochastics has remained in the oversold territory for nearly 6 weeks now and could signal a correction in the near term. A break down below Thursday's low of 1122.81 could, however, see gold prices continue to dip towards 1100 support.
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