Global risk appetite remains strong

21 February, 2017

The Australian economy continues to be a roller coaster for any Aussie bulls, but one thing is certain the markets are not paying too much attention at present with the AUDUSD being one of the stand out performers in 2017 so far. However, markets should be paying attention to what is going on with the consumer economy with the weekly consumer confidence reading coming at 113.7 (previous 116.4). With the 3rd week of drops for the consumer economy the Reserve Bank of Australia may be starting to squirm slightly, especially as they head into a new year with an uncertain global economy focused on Trump and Brexit.

On the charts the AUDUSD has been a trail blazer as of late as the bulls have taken full control to run it up the charts. This has been on the back of risk sentiment being very strong in the wake of Trumps elections, but for the fundamental side of the Australian economy it's not making a lot of sense. Either way the technical's so far have been very positive with the 20 day moving average acting as dynamic support as it pushes the AUDUSD higher. Resistance has been quite strong around 0.7730 and 0.7754 and the market will certainly have to work hard to break through these levels. Consolidation between 0.7680 and 0.7730 is likely to be the next few days of trading before the market may look to retest previous levels, it would be with a degree of caution at present as there is still not a lot of clear direction globally.

Risk sentiment is not only driving the commodity currencies, but also the US equity markets which in turn saw another sharp spike today as it continued to make record highs on the back of positive economic data. Last week's Philly manufacturing index data took the market by surprise with a very strong reading of 43.3 (exp 18.0). This large jump is in part to the market believing that the Trump administration will look to boost the US domestic economy, and is likely to stimulate it and in turn give the manufacturing sector a much needed boost. Even with the threat of further rate rises the US equity markets have so far not faltered and look ever more bullish, even as the economic data points to another one right around the corner.

For the traders looking to cash in on the S&P 500 the bulls look to be in control. How long momentum can be sustained is hard to see at this stage, but the psychological levels become important as you go up the charts into new territory. With the market now sitting just above 2350 it's likely to look for the next level higher and this is looking likely to be 2400 for resistance. Past history has shown that these levels are major points for the market, and as the bulls look to see if the sky is the limits, you can expect to see some major levels of resistance around these round numbers.


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