U.S. dollar wavers, PPI data coming up

14 March, 2017

Trading was flat with the currencies seen giving back the gains made from Friday. The lack of any major events also contributed in part to the flat trading. Traders will be looking forward to the first part of a busy week starting tomorrow with the Fed's rate hike looming. The Dutch elections will also be weighing on investor sentiment, which could be a positive for gold prices, which are consolidating above the 1200.00 mark.

The economic calendar remains void of any major events today as well, but Germany's final inflation data will be coming up which is expected to show a 0.6% increase on a month over month basis. In the U.S. trading session, producer price index data is expected to show headline PPI rise 1.9% on the year while core PPI is expected to tick higher to 1.5% from 1.2% previously.

EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD (1.0650): EURUSD rallied to 1.0700 yesterday but failed at the resistance closing lower on the day. Price action remains mixed, but the common currency is looking weaker ahead of Wednesday's Dutch elections. Yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi spoke at an event in Frankfurt but did not make any big references to the monetary policy decisions from the previous week. Italy's industrial production was the only other data point yesterday. EURUSD is expected to continue its slide back towards 1.0600 as noted yesterday if the current pace of declines continues. Establishing support at 1.0600 will be critical for any upside bias to build up. Below 1.0600, EURUSD could slide towards the previous lower support at 1.0532 - 1.0521.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

USDJPY (114.91): USDJPY is seen attempting to push higher following the breakout from the rising trend line. The bias remains lower and could be validated on a lower high that could be formed on the current up-leg. Watch for USDJPY to retest and possibly reverse near 115.00 as price action could resume its declines towards 114.00 - 113.78 support level. In the event of a continued breakdown, USDJPY could be seen testing 112.95 support region. The yen could come back in favor ahead of the Fed meeting and the Dutch vote tomorrow.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

XAUUSD (1202.20): The initial attempt to bounce off 1200 support looks to be fading as gold prices are looking weaker following the intraday test to 1211 highs yesterday. Gold could be seen falling back to the 1200 handle in the near term as the 4-hour chart shows the hidden bearish divergence, with the Stochastics printing a higher high against the price's lower high. The support zone of 1200 - 1196.50 could hold the declines for the moment. However, in the event of a break down below 1196.50, expect to see further declines towards the 1175.00 handle. To the upside, gold prices could be seen testing 1217 - 1220 resistance followed by 1237.00.


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