FOMC meeting minutes and ADP payrolls in focus

5 April, 2017

FOMC meeting minutes and ADP payrolls in focus

The markets were trading mixed yesterday with gold and the Japanese yen continuing to remain as the top performers as investors shunned risk assets. Gold prices continued to push higher in another bullish day as prices tested $1261, the highest since late February this year, closing the day with modest gains of 0.21%, while the yen gained 0.15% on the day.

On the economic front, the trade deficit data from the U.S. showed another month where the trade deficit continued to narrow to $43.6 billion, which was the lowest level since October, while the durable goods orders expanded at a rate of 1.8% on the month.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will be dominated by the ADP private payrolls data which is expected to show 184k jobs being added for the month of March. The ISM's non-manufacturing PMI is also expected to be released today, with forecasts showing a headline print of 57.0, slightly down from 57.6 registered in February.

Traders will also be looking to the FOMC meeting minutes which will be released from the March FOMC meeting where the Fed hiked interest rates by 25 basis points.

EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD (1.0673): EURUSD closed with a doji yesterday with prices pushing lower during the intraday trading session to 1.0635. Despite this dip to a 14-day low, EURUSD is looking a tad bullish as price approaches 1.0700 resistance level.

To the upside, the price is likely to test 1.0750 with the potential to extend the gains to 1.0800. For the moment, price action is showing a basing pattern currently trading within 1.0700 and 1.0600 levels. A break out from these levels will signal a move to resistance at 1.0800 or to the support at 1.0530.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

USDJPY (110.60): USDJPY slipped below the support level at 110.50 yesterday, but the price quickly managed to recover from the declines, currently back to consolidate near the support level once again. Price action remains mixed here as the risks are equally biased for the moment.

To the upside, USDJPY will be targeting the resistance level at 112.00, while to the downside, the support at 110.00 remains the target. Given the fact USDJPY has previously posted a recovery without testing the support at 110.00, there is a chance for the dollar to slide towards the lower support in the near term.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

XAUUSD (1255.15): Gold prices continued to push higher yesterday as prices tested the highs of 1261.16, making the third day of bullish close. However, the fact that price failed to break out above clearly above the resistance level established at 1257.60 signals potential downside in prices. Watch for the support that has been formed at 1241.00 which could be tested in the near term.

A break down below 1241.00 will signal a decline towards 1210 and eventually to 1200.00. However, the 4-hour Stochastics points to another upside move in prices for a potential bearish divergence to be formed, which could signal the correction to 1200.00.


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