20 April, 2017
Keep up to date with metals, oils, indices, bonds, equities and agricultural commodities in our Beyond Forex analysis. With a lot of news coming out of the United States and the UK, there have been some observable trends developing; some more beneficial than others. Also visit our economic calendar to learn about this week’s latest and most significant economic events.
UK retail sales figures are due for release on Friday at 8.30am GMT. Economic prospects are looking up a little for the UK right now, with some much-needed wage inflation creeping into play and this has given Treasury yields a lift, too. However, if these gains can be maintained until the end of the week, it might simply make for a good profit taking opportunity if there are indications that consumer activity is depressed.
We have Chinese GDP for Q1 set to be released at 1am GMT on Monday morning. Any shortfall here could see some downward pressure applied to oil prices, most notably because a lack of demand domestically sees Chinese refineries dumping distillates on the open market. However, assuming we do see the 6.8% figure that’s forecast to be printed come in, then the prospect of Opec extending its production quotas and the overhang of fresh conflict in the Middle East should be enough to keep prices buoyant.
Again with that Chinese GDP print in mind, the Australian market could be poised for some volatility if we see any variance from the expected reading. China is the largest market for Australian exports by a significant margin, absorbing 32% of all goods shipped overseas, followed by Japan at a mere 16%. If China sneezes then the ASX may well catch a cold and whilst gains on the local market over the last six months haven’t been quite as pronounced as we have seen elsewhere, but the All Ords is approaching a nine year high – many will be looking for the trigger to sell.
The precious metal has been in favour of late as investors look for a safe haven for their assets. The long weekend shut down of many markets may have been helping stimulate demand here, so with the Easter weekend behind us, assuming there are no changes in the underlying geopolitical backdrop then some weakness may feed through here as demand abates.
International Business Machines – or IBM as most of us know it – releases its Q1 results on Tuesday. The company’s performance was historically known as something of a barometer of the global economy, but now it’s more about what new avenues they’re exploring for tech innovation that will likely pique investor interest. Last month the company announced plans to make quantum computing commercially available via the cloud. Signs that they can continue compete effectively with the next generation of IT vendors will be welcome news for investors.
The H4 the price was unable to consolidate below 1.1400 (or see a 23.6% correction) of course this doesn’t mean that the currency pair won’t see a correction soon. If the pair surpasses 1.1400 near the intersection with the limit of the upper fan...
Compounding the effect was a slip in retail sales fell continuing last month’s trend. Estimates gauge the possibility of another rate hike at under 50%., of course this is a disparate position from FOMC’s plan to commit 4 increases by 2018...
The currency strengthened opposite the JPY and EUR, but slipped opposite AUD and GBP. Janet Yellen head of the FRS went on record in front of Congress pointing out the US economy’s positive trend which in turn will affect the Fed’s interest rate stance...
The US Dollar floundered against most other FOREX currencies yesterday. The only currency that fared worse than the dollar (resulted in the USD strengthening against it) was the EUR...
This week, the dollar is starting off on a strong note as US interest rates continue their increase from Friday. For example, 10-year yields...
Our four-hour chart is showing Tenkan-sen under the Kijun-sen, both while being horizontal. Chikou Span confirmative line bisects the chart from below, indicating a descending cloud reversing into ascension. XAU seems to be trading over both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen...
Mario Draghi shook up markets on Tuesday by announcing victory against deflation and stating that policy needs to gradually normalize...
It seems that investors confidence in commodity currencies were renewed as their prices grew while the safe-havens...
The four-hour chart above clearly shows the Tenkan-sen line crossing the Kijun-sen from the bottom of the chart, we also see the blue line moving downwards, while the red is holding horizontally. The Chikou Span confirmative line is moving towards the bottom of the chart, indicating a descending cloud...