Brexit Negotiations to be Triggered

19 June, 2017

The Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU is set to start today, June 19th.

Although Theresa May has stated before “no deal is better than a bad deal”, Chancellor said on Sunday that “no deal would be a very, very bad outcome for Britain”. A Hung Parliament will likely cause both a positive and a negative impact on the Brexit process, as the Tories now have less dominance in the Parliament, the UK will likely be at a weaker position, resulting in a softer Brexit. However, different opinions and stances between different political parties will likely cause conflicts on some Brexit associated issues.

The focuses on the Brexit issues include whether the UK will be able to stay in the custom union, trade agreements, financial services, the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British nationals living in the EU etc. In the short term, the GBP prospects will likely subject to the progression and situation of the Brexit process.

GBP has seen a rebound post the general election. GBP/USD has rebounded around 1.15% since June 12th. This morning, in early European session, the bulls are attempting to breach the psychological level at 1.2800. GBP/JPY has rebounded 2.3% since June 12th. This morning, in early European session, the bulls broke the resistance level at 142.00. EUR/GBP has retraced 1.3% since June 12th.

After the release of the UK general election outcome, markets’ risk-off sentiment has waned. The VIX (volatility) index fell to a low of 9.37, last seen in 1993, after the election. It was followed by a moderate rebound, trading around 10.38. It appears to be that markets’ risk-on sentiment will likely last an extended period.

Gold has retreated around 1.27% since the Fed addressed a hawkish statement last Wednesday. This morning in early European session, spot gold fell to a low of 1250.06, last seen on May 24th.. There is stronger support at the zone between 1245 – 1250, if the zone is broken, we will likely see an extended downtrend. In the short term, gold prices likely remain bearish unless some unexpected market events happen to push it up.

The economic data is relatively thin this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes will be released at 02:30 BST on Tuesday morning, it will likely affect AUD crosses.


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