Oil bulls jump on OPEC report

12 July, 2017

Oil markets saw some life injected back into them today as OPEC members hit 97% compliance in cuts set out by the organisation. The result of this was a bullish rebound as the market still perceives OPEC to have some control over oil markets. Further adding to this was the API private oil inventory data which showed a drawdown of -8.13M barrels, which is a nice indicator as supply issues have been a problem in the past. The real public inventory data is due out tomorrow from the Department of Energy in the US and expectations will be high to see some sort of drawdown based on the API figures.

On the charts the rebound has pushed up through resistance at 45.69 and it will be interesting to see if the candle closes above or falls back. If we do a see a drawdown tomorrow which is bigger than expected then I would expect the market to target resistance at 47.16 as a result. This area though is a lot more robust and the market will be keen to see if there is potential to move higher from here, or if we need further data in the future to continue. If we see supply being built back up then support at 43.77 and 41.85 as likely targets for traders. However, candles recently have shown very long tails which leads me to believe that the bulls are looking assert their control and stop bearish movements any further.

The New Zealand dollar has been a star as of late when it comes to economic performance and the likeability of the currency for traders. After recent positive data from a monetary perspective and a fiscal one the NZDUSD has been somewhat bullish as of late. And the week coming should see further interest as Chinese data as well as business PMI and CPI are due out on Wednesday. All of which has the ability to push the NZD higher in the event they are very positive.

For the NZDUSD traders the market has been one of interest, with strong waves on the daily chart showing less and less appetite for large bullish movements any higher than the previous wave. So far the NZDUSD has hit resistance at 0.7345 and has looked to trend lower as this looks like the upper limit of the bullish wave. It has also paused as of today on support at 0.7200, but the market is looking it could turn so the potential to move lower is looking all the more likely and a test of support at 0.7120 looks to be on the cards.В 


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