FOMC disappoints US bulls

27 July, 2017

It's been another round of FOMC today and the USD bulls have been left disappointed again by Yellen as the hawkish comments they had hoped for were not forthcoming at all. The FED is looking to unwind its balance sheet in the near future, but market expectations are that a rate hike is sometime off - most likely in December at the present rate. Additionally, the FED believes inflation to be rising to the magic 2% mark, but that it may slack off as food prices and fuel have been stagnating over the past few months. So it looks like the FED wants to raise rates in the future, and has strong business demand and a robust labour market, but is missing the last magical ingredient which is inflation. If we see stronger readings in the near future then we could see expectations increase that a potential rate rise could take us off the current 1.25% and help drive the USD bulls again.

When it comes to markets that benefit from the USD weakness look no further than the EURUSD which has been steadily climbing the charts for some time now. I spoke a while back about how well it has been doing in recent times in its bullish channel, and the fact opportunities still remain. Well today's push through resistance at 1.1719 are very positive and the market will be looking to see if this candle can close above. At present it's slightly above and we could see it look to treat that resistance level as support. If we do see that hold above 1.1719 I would look for the potential of a further move higher to 1.1915 which is likely to be a key level for traders to target. I would also pay attention to the 20 day moving average, which has been looking very strong for bullish support as of late as well.

Another big benefactor of the USD weakness has been commodity currencies and in particular the AUDUSD cross which has been rising high for some time. Yesterdays inflation reading was in line with the trimmed reading forecasts so there was a slight dip, but this has been shrugged off in trading today. The market will now be looking at Australian export and import forecasts due out shortly to see if they can beat estimates and send the AUD higher. A boost in import prices would certainly help the case for further inflation which has been Australia's weakness thus far; but also more so a global problem.

AUDUSD has been trending in a bullish manner for some time and there is still plenty of room for it to move upwards. At present its struggling to break through the 80 cent mark which is a psychological level, but it looks poised to make the move if it ever will. If we do see a push through here I would expect to see a battle between the bears and bulls, and if we do see the bulls take control then a potential run to 0.8154 at the 50.0 fib level. 


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