US markets surge on GDP figures

31 August, 2017

US markets clawed back ground today as the hurricane started to let up in Texas and move across to Louisiana giving some reprieve for the embattled state. This was further boosted by GDP figures out today, which showed the annual rate q/q jumping to 3.0% (2.7% exp) - a strong result in for the US economy despite the recent turmoil. There will be question marks now about the economy and if it can growth further though with the Trump effect wearing off, but this lends strong weight to a potential December rate hike from the FED. There will now also be strong bets on a positive initial jobless claims report tomorrow, however the month to come may see it boosted by the damage caused by the hurricane.

For the market, turning heads today, the EURUSD was like no other, after recently hitting a high not seen since 2015 it has done an about turn after some stiff resistance. This is not to say the EUR is losing ground, it certainly has been making up plenty against the ever weaker GBP. For me though the EUR is likely to continue to be a strong currency in the foreseeable future as data continues to be positive and some of the weaker countries are now starting to show strong signs of growth with the accommodative monetary policy laid out by the European Central Bank.

The EURUSD hit stiff resistance at 1.2060 and the market is looking to jump higher on the charts in the near future as it travels up the bullish channel. Today's announcement has certainly given the bears a good swipe, and allowed traders to unwind positions. It's likely we could see further trending down and the 20 day moving average will be interesting to watch to see if the bears have really taken hold, a push through would confirm some bearish sentiment with a target at support at 1.1800. Further support can be found at 1.1798 and 1.1621 with the likelihood that these levels will be key to stopping further falls. The reality is that the USD could strengthen and push things lower, but with Germany recently recording a record trade surplus it seems that any weakness in the Euro may be a temporary thing.

Back on US soil and with the storm slowly subduing it's clear that the S&P500 is back in business when it comes to volatility with some strong movements over the last two days as traders once again defended bearish swipes on the 100 day moving average. This bullish sentiment around the moving average lends weight to the idea that we could see a resurgence and eager traders will be wanting to see if they can take another crack at the 2484 level which has acted as strong resistance recently. I would be surprised to see a push through however unless US economic data does improve a bit more, which could take some time after the impact in one the US's most productive states. 


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