US feels Trump effect wearing off

27 October, 2017

Trumps tax plan seems to be going well in Congress with Republicans continuing to offer support, even though it will produce a deficit in the short to medium term. They are thinking the rise in GDP will off-set any deficits at all, but that will be something for future economists to work out. One thing is clear is that the Trump effect has worn off and we are seeing the effects on the markets. US pending home sales m/m came in weak at 0%  (0.5% exp), which is kind of normal due to the seasonal changes. We've also seen a number of large American corporates struggle to beat earnings in the latest 3rd quarter results. So tomorrow will be quite heavily focused on the US GDP results, where many are hoping for more robust growth, helping to justify the need to pass the tax bill to help corporations flourish in the USA.

One of the major movers on the markets is obviously the S&P 500 which has thus far been struggling on the third quarter results. Expectations had been higher after the Trump effect and thus far they've not been rewarded. In fact, we've ended up with a jumpy market and that can be seen clearly in the media of today - where markets are getting more and more cautious regarding recent rises. It has been clear the bears are there in the market, but every time they've rushed down as we've seen in the last two weeks the bulls have looked to punish them. But it shows that the sentiment is there to push things lower.

Looking at key levels for the S&P 500 it's clear that 2579 is the key level of resistance in the market thus far, with any higher movers likely to hit 2600 which will be acting as the psychological level. The 20 day moving average is also not being respected by the market, so it's unclear if traders will look to pay attention to it, if any at present as most are too far away. If we see further drops look for support at 2545, with the possibility of going lower to 2529 if we see a breakthrough. I do feel this area is very uncertain at present with the market starting to slide sideways until it finds direction. But those levels will be key for traders going and looking for the bears and bulls in this market.

One other key mover here is gold markets, thus far they've been falling but if we do see trouble in the US markets I would expect to see them jump back into action.

Thus far they've slowed down at support at 1267, with the potential to go further to 1247 in the long run. Unless we do see some US troubles, then it will be a case of gold looking to test those key levels of resistance around 1281 and 1295, with the potential to break into the high 1300's if things really go wrong.


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